23 July 2026, 16:00 UTC

Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Azərsun Arena, Baku
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Qarabag 0-0 CSKA Sofia.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Qarabag, 30% draw, 21% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 2.04, 3.33 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: CSKA Sofia v Qarabag, 30 Jul →

CSKA Sofia went through on penalties, after 0–0 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Qarabag at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

35'
Leandro Godoy
Marko Janković
37'
🔁M. Jankovicout: R. Cephas
56'
🔁B. Langaout: E. Cafarquliyev
56'
73'
🔁L. Godoyout: J. Zwarts
73'
🔁M. Ebongout: I. Solet
🔁O. Kashchukout: J. Mouaddib
74'
🔁B. Huseynovout: C. Makreckis
74'
77'
Facundo Rodríguez
🔁A. Zoubirout: J. Montiel
78'
84'
🔁A. Martinoout: T. Ouorou
90+1'
🔁Pastorout: M. Brahimi
90+1'
🔁S. Sensiout: P. Panayotov

Line-ups

Qarabag 4-2-3-1
  • 99M. KochalskiG
  • 2Matheus SilvaD
  • 55B. HuseynovD
  • 4B. Varkonyi
  • 5B. LangaD
  • 35Pedro BicalhoM
  • 8M. JankovicM
  • 21O. KashchukM
  • 20Kady BorgesM
  • 10A. Zoubir
  • 11Z. SawoF
Substitutes
  • 1S. MahammadaliyevG
  • 23M. ZlomislicG
  • 7J. MouaddibM
  • 9J. MontielM
  • 13B. MustafazadaD
  • 22M. QurbanlyF
  • 25C. MakreckisM
  • 29R. CephasF
  • 32H. CabrayilzadaM
Coach: Qurban Qurbanov
CSKA Sofia 4-4-2
  • 21F. Lapoukhov
  • 2PastorD
  • 32F. RodriguezD
  • 14T. IvanovD
  • 17A. MartinoD
  • 7M. EbongM
  • 5J. GbaminD
  • 6B. JordaoM
  • 8S. SensiM
  • 9L. GodoyF
  • 28I. PittasF
Substitutes
  • 25D. EvtimovG
  • 3T. OuorouD
  • 10J. ZwartsF
  • 11M. BrahimiM
  • 19A. YordanovD
  • 30P. PanayotovM
  • 34V. KaymakanovM
  • 38Leo PereiraM
  • 77A. PiedrahitaM
Coach: Hristo Yanev

Form going into Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia

Qarabag

No earlier matches on record this season.

CSKA Sofia

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Slavia Sofia20 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia

  • 4 July 2023CSKA Sofia 0–1 QarabagFriendlies Clubs
  • 7 July 2021CSKA Sofia 0–1 QarabagFriendlies Clubs

The result against the call

Qarabag and CSKA Sofia drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Qarabag at 49% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.