23 July 2026, 16:00 UTC

Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Azərsun Arena, Baku
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Qarabag 0-0 CSKA Sofia.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Qarabag, 30% draw, 21% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 2.04, 3.33 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Qarabag at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

35'
Leandro Godoy
Marko Janković
37'
🔁M. Jankovicout: R. Cephas
56'
🔁B. Langaout: E. Cafarquliyev
56'
73'
🔁L. Godoyout: J. Zwarts
73'
🔁M. Ebongout: I. Solet
🔁O. Kashchukout: J. Mouaddib
74'
🔁B. Huseynovout: C. Makreckis
74'
77'
Facundo Rodríguez
🔁A. Zoubirout: J. Montiel
78'
84'
🔁A. Martinoout: T. Ouorou
90+1'
🔁Pastorout: M. Brahimi
90+1'
🔁S. Sensiout: P. Panayotov

Line-ups

Qarabag 4-2-3-1
  • 99M. KochalskiG
  • 2Matheus SilvaD
  • 55B. HuseynovD
  • 4B. Varkonyi
  • 5B. LangaD
  • 35Pedro BicalhoM
  • 8M. JankovicM
  • 21O. KashchukM
  • 20Kady BorgesM
  • 10A. Zoubir
  • 11Z. SawoF
Substitutes
  • 1S. MahammadaliyevG
  • 23M. ZlomislicG
  • 7J. MouaddibM
  • 9J. MontielM
  • 13B. MustafazadaD
  • 22M. QurbanlyF
  • 25C. MakreckisM
  • 29R. CephasF
  • 32H. CabrayilzadaM
Coach: Qurban Qurbanov
CSKA Sofia 4-4-2
  • 21F. Lapoukhov
  • 2PastorD
  • 32F. RodriguezD
  • 14T. IvanovD
  • 17A. MartinoD
  • 7M. EbongM
  • 5J. GbaminD
  • 6B. JordaoM
  • 8S. SensiM
  • 9L. GodoyF
  • 28I. PittasF
Substitutes
  • 25D. EvtimovG
  • 3T. OuorouD
  • 10J. ZwartsF
  • 11M. BrahimiM
  • 19A. YordanovD
  • 30P. PanayotovM
  • 34V. KaymakanovM
  • 38Leo PereiraM
  • 77A. PiedrahitaM
Coach: Hristo Yanev

Form going into Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia

Qarabag

No earlier matches on record this season.

CSKA Sofia

  • D0-0away to Slavia Sofia20 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia

  • 23 July 2026Qarabag 0–0 CSKA SofiaUEFA Europa League
  • 4 July 2023CSKA Sofia 0–1 QarabagFriendlies Clubs
  • 7 July 2021CSKA Sofia 0–1 QarabagFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Qarabag and CSKA Sofia

Qarabag

  • R. Almeyda1 goals
  • Pedro Bicalho1 goals

CSKA Sofia

  • Bruno Jordão1 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.