30 July 2026, 17:00 UTC

Pafos vs HNK Hajduk Split UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Alphamega Stadium, Limassol
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Pafos 2-0 HNK Hajduk Split.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Pafos, 19% draw, 27% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 1.85, 5.26 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Pafos at 54% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

D. Goldar
12'
⚽Guga
40'
Guga
45+4'
🔁Jajaout: V. Dragomir
45+2'
50'
A. Pajaziti
53'
🔁A. Guramout: A. Sanyang
63'
🔁M. Acapandieout: N. Sigur
63'
🔁S. Hrgovicout: M. Livaja
I. Sunjic
68'
🔁D. Quinaout: J. Correia
71'
🔁Gugaout: Pepe
71'
🔁N. Ioannouout: K. Sema
82'
🔁I. Sunjicout: M. Mammadov
82'
85'
🔁A. Pajazitiout: A. del Moral
⚽D. Goldarassist: V. Dragomir
90'
⚽Biel
93'
96'
R. Pukstas
98'
🔁D. de Almeidaout: A. Sutalo
🔁Bielout: A. Brito
103'
106'
🔁D. Maresicout: M. Skelin
⚽J. Correiaassist: Pepe
117'

Line-ups

Pafos 4-3-3
  • 99R. MajeckiG
  • 7BrunoD
  • 5D. GoldarD
  • 4David LuizD
  • 14N. IoannouD
  • 8D. QuinaM
  • 26I. SunjicM
  • 6GugaM
  • 20BielF
  • 18LeleF
  • 11JajaM
Substitutes
  • 71M. PapastylianouG
  • 82P. PetrouG
  • 3S. MmaeeD
  • 12K. SemaM
  • 30V. DragomirM
  • 42G. MichaelM
  • 47M. MammadovF
  • 50A. BritoM
  • 60C. Evzona
Coach: Albert Celades
HNK Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1
  • 33T. SilicG
  • 22M. AcapandieD
  • 15D. MaresicD
  • 5A. Van HoorenbeeckD
  • 32S. HrgovicD
  • 21R. PukstasM
  • 4A. PajazitiM
  • 26A. GuramM
  • 9D. de AlmeidaM
  • 17D. MelnjakD
  • 11M. SegoF
Substitutes
  • 1I. IvusicG
  • 44D. StipicaG
  • 7A. SanyangM
  • 8N. SigurD
  • 10M. LivajaF
  • 14R. RaciD
  • 16A. SutaloM
  • 19E. BrrutiM
  • 20A. del MoralM
Coach: Gonzalo Garcia

Form going into Pafos vs HNK Hajduk Split

Pafos

  • L0-2away to HNK Hajduk Split23 July 2026

HNK Hajduk Split

  • W2-0Pafos23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Pafos and HNK Hajduk Split in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
1HNK Hajduk SplitHNL7511165+1116

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Pafos has not started the league season yet. Full tables: UEFA Europa Conference League · HNL

Head-to-head: Pafos vs HNK Hajduk Split

  • 30 July 2026Pafos 1–0 HNK Hajduk SplitUEFA Europa League
  • 23 July 2026HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 PafosUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Pafos and HNK Hajduk Split

Pafos

No leading scorers listed yet.

HNK Hajduk Split

  • M. Šego4 goals
  • M. Livaja3 goals
  • M. Šotiček2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.