30 July 2026, 17:00 UTC

Pafos vs HNK Hajduk Split UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Alphamega Stadium, Limassol
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Pafos 2-0 HNK Hajduk Split.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Pafos, 19% draw, 27% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 1.85, 5.26 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 Pafos (23 Jul) →

Pafos went through on penalties, after 2–2 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Pafos at 54% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

D. Goldar
12'
⚽Guga
40'
Guga
45+4'
🔁Jajaout: V. Dragomir
45+2'
50'
A. Pajaziti
53'
🔁A. Guramout: A. Sanyang
63'
🔁M. Acapandieout: N. Sigur
63'
🔁S. Hrgovicout: M. Livaja
I. Sunjic
68'
🔁D. Quinaout: J. Correia
71'
🔁Gugaout: Pepe
71'
🔁N. Ioannouout: K. Sema
82'
🔁I. Sunjicout: M. Mammadov
82'
85'
🔁A. Pajazitiout: A. del Moral
⚽D. Goldarassist: V. Dragomir
90'
⚽Biel
93'
96'
R. Pukstas
98'
🔁D. de Almeidaout: A. Sutalo
🔁Bielout: A. Brito
103'
106'
🔁D. Maresicout: M. Skelin
⚽J. Correiaassist: Pepe
117'

Line-ups

Pafos 4-3-3
  • 99R. MajeckiG
  • 7BrunoD
  • 5D. GoldarD
  • 4David LuizD
  • 14N. IoannouD
  • 8D. QuinaM
  • 26I. SunjicM
  • 6GugaM
  • 20BielF
  • 18LeleF
  • 11JajaM
Substitutes
  • 71M. PapastylianouG
  • 82P. PetrouG
  • 3S. MmaeeD
  • 12K. SemaM
  • 30V. DragomirM
  • 42G. MichaelM
  • 47M. MammadovF
  • 50A. BritoM
  • 60C. Evzona
Coach: Albert Celades
HNK Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1
  • 33T. SilicG
  • 22M. AcapandieD
  • 15D. MaresicD
  • 5A. Van HoorenbeeckD
  • 32S. HrgovicD
  • 21R. PukstasM
  • 4A. PajazitiM
  • 26A. GuramM
  • 9D. de AlmeidaM
  • 17D. MelnjakD
  • 11M. SegoF
Substitutes
  • 1I. IvusicG
  • 44D. StipicaG
  • 7A. SanyangM
  • 8N. SigurD
  • 10M. LivajaF
  • 14R. RaciD
  • 16A. SutaloM
  • 19E. BrrutiM
  • 20A. del MoralM
Coach: Gonzalo Garcia

Form going into Pafos vs HNK Hajduk Split

Pafos

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to HNK Hajduk Split23 July 2026

HNK Hajduk Split

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Pafos23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Pafos vs HNK Hajduk Split

  • 23 July 2026HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 PafosUEFA Europa League

The result against the call

Pafos beat HNK Hajduk Split 2–0. The model had made a win for Pafos its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.