UEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying Round · 30 July 2026, 17:00 UTC

Pafos vs HNK Hajduk Split

Alphamega Stadium, Limassol

The model makes it 56% Pafos, 19% draw, 25% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 1.79, 5.26 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).

Expected goals: Pafos 2.62, HNK Hajduk Split 1.78.

Both teams to score: 77%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%, under 2.5: 19%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

77%
Both teams to score
81%
Over 2.5 goals
19%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-1 8%2-2 7%3-1 7%

Head-to-head: Pafos vs HNK Hajduk Split

  • 30 July 2026Pafos 1–0 HNK Hajduk SplitUEFA Europa League
  • 23 July 2026HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 PafosUEFA Europa League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Pafos the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.62 expected goals for Pafos against 1.78 for HNK Hajduk Split. Pafos's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/2.2 for HNK Hajduk Split.