30 July 2026, 17:00 UTC

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Dinamo Tbilisi UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

LFF stadionas, Vilnius
Full time7 – 2

Final score: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 7-2 Dinamo Tbilisi.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% FK Zalgiris Vilnius, 21% draw, 32% Dinamo Tbilisi — fair odds of 2.13, 4.76 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FK Zalgiris Vilnius99%Draw1%Dinamo Tbilisi0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 9 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
Aleksandre Kalandadze
⚽Nikola Petković (pen)
9'
22'
🔁P. Psaltisout: L. Houri
⚽S. Bilenkyiassist: P. Golubickas
25'
40'
⚽Leo Santos
41'
Léo Santos
Danny Koy Lupano
56'
⚽N. Petkovicassist: D. Franke
59'
60'
🔁T. Kvaratskheliaout: N. Tkalia
⚽B. Teixeira
61'
Petar Bosančić
62'
68'
Maxime Do Couto
70'
🔁K. Kakashviliout: M. Vatsadze
72'
⚽M. Vatsadzeassist: N. Kurdic
⚽N. Petkovic
73'
74'
Giorgi Loria
76'
Algassime Bah
⚽S. Bilenkyi
82'
🔁P. Golubickasout: N. Mihajlovic
84'
⚽N. Mihajlovicassist: S. Bilenkyi
88'
Yuri Kendysh
90+2'
90+7'
Mate Vatsadze
🔁N. Petkovicout: M. Capan
90+3'
🔁D. Sesplaukisout: K. Upstas
90+3'
🔁D. Frankeout: S. Mamatsashvili
90+3'
⚽S. Bilenkyiassist: B. Teixeira
90'

Line-ups

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 4-2-3-1
  • 12V. Sarkauskas
  • 18D. SesplaukisM
  • 4D. Koy Lupano
  • 15P. BosancicD
  • 21D. FrankeD
  • 20I. LytvynenkoM
  • 77Y. KendyshD
  • 10P. GolubickasM
  • 19S. BilenkyiF
  • 70B. TeixeiraM
  • 11N. PetkovicF
Substitutes
  • 1C. OlsesG
  • 5G. TurdaD
  • 6M. CapanM
  • 7N. MihajlovicM
  • 8L. AntalF
  • 9G. JaruseviciusM
  • 13K. UpstasD
  • 14M. SetkusD
  • 22O. VerbickasM
Coach: Andrius Skerla
Dinamo Tbilisi 4-4-2
  • 1G. LoriaG
  • 6Leo Santos
  • 27N. KurdicD
  • 22N. NinuaM
  • 3A. KalandadzeD
  • 17P. PsaltisD
  • 39K. KakashviliM
  • 24B. OseiM
  • 18T. KvaratskheliaF
  • 12A. BahF
  • 14M. Do CoutoM
Substitutes
  • 37M. Makatsaria
  • 40M. GagvishviliG
  • 11M. Vatsadze
  • 16N. TkaliaM
  • 21D. KvartskhavaF
  • 26G. GoguaM
  • 28R. AleksidzeF
  • 29R. DaneliaF
  • 32L. TsikoliaM
Coach: Vladimer Kakashvili

Form going into FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Dinamo Tbilisi

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

  • L0-3away to Dinamo Tbilisi23 July 2026

Dinamo Tbilisi

  • W3-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Dinamo Tbilisi

  • 30 July 2026FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3–1 Dinamo TbilisiUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 23 July 2026Dinamo Tbilisi 3–0 FK Zalgiris VilniusUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 1 February 2023FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0–0 Dinamo TbilisiFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Dinamo Tbilisi

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

No leading scorers listed yet.

Dinamo Tbilisi

  • Rodrigo Silva Ramos2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.