30 July 2026, 16:00 UTC

Zira vs Paide UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Kapital Bank Arena, Sumgayit
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Zira 1-1 Paide.

Before kick-off the model made it 63% Zira, 19% draw, 18% Paide — fair odds of 1.59, 5.26 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Zira at 63% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Zira7%Draw90%Paide3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽E. Aydin
5'
57'
D. Luts
62'
🔁A. Badamosiout: H. Anier
62'
🔁D. Lutsout: H. Ojamaa
71'
⚽H. Anierassist: H. Ojamaa
72'
🔁M. Millerout: Daniel Cabral
🔁Guimaout: L. Bayere Junior
72'
🔁A. Guseynovout: G. Papunashvili
72'
75'
🔁S. Lutsout: P. A. Cham
🔁E. Aydinout: Martins Junior
80'
🔁Vieirinhaout: I. Ibrahimli
80'
Martins Junior
83'
🔁B. Konateout: A. Seydiyev
89'

Line-ups

Zira
  • 13A. Bayramov
  • 32Q. Aliyev
  • 5A. Mutsinzi
  • 4Ruan Renato
  • 20I. Djibrilla
  • 93B. Konate
  • 17Vieirinha
  • 21Guima
  • 22A. Guseynov
  • 9D. Volkovi
  • 7E. Aydin
Substitutes
  • 72H. Quliyev
  • 99S. Hashimov
  • 2A. Seydiyev
  • 8I. Ibrahimli
  • 10G. Papunashvili
  • 11Martins Junior
  • 14E. Alicanov
  • 23D. Smith
  • 27L. Bayere Junior
Coach: Rashad Sadiqov
Paide
  • 99E. Jarju
  • 7E. Tur
  • 27N. Baranov
  • 3Victor Hugo
  • 2M. Lilander
  • 10M. Miller
  • 28O. Hoim
  • 11M. P. Sohna
  • 77D. Luts
  • 30A. Badamosi
  • 19S. Luts
Substitutes
  • 12M. Meerits
  • 56M. Sapp
  • 4Andrade
  • 6Daniel Cabral
  • 8H. Ojamaa
  • 9H. Anier
  • 14M. Jobarteh
  • 17P. A. Cham
  • 20K. Piht
Coach: Tarmo Kink

Form going into Zira vs Paide

Zira

  • L0-1away to Paide23 July 2026

Paide

  • W1-0Zira23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Zira vs Paide

  • 30 July 2026Zira 1–1 PaideUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 23 July 2026Paide 1–0 ZiraUEFA Europa Conference League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.