30 July 2026, 16:00 UTC

Zira vs Paide UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Kapital Bank Arena, Sumgayit
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Zira 1-1 Paide.

Before kick-off the model made it 63% Zira, 19% draw, 18% Paide — fair odds of 1.59, 5.26 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Paide 1–0 Zira (23 Jul) →

Paide went through 2–1 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Zira at 63% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Zira7%Draw90%Paide3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽E. Aydin
5'
57'
D. Luts
62'
🔁A. Badamosiout: H. Anier
62'
🔁D. Lutsout: H. Ojamaa
71'
⚽H. Anierassist: H. Ojamaa
72'
🔁M. Millerout: Daniel Cabral
🔁Guimaout: L. Bayere Junior
72'
🔁A. Guseynovout: G. Papunashvili
72'
75'
🔁S. Lutsout: P. A. Cham
🔁E. Aydinout: Martins Junior
80'
🔁Vieirinhaout: I. Ibrahimli
80'
Martins Junior
83'
🔁B. Konateout: A. Seydiyev
89'

Line-ups

Zira
  • 13A. Bayramov
  • 32Q. Aliyev
  • 5A. Mutsinzi
  • 4Ruan Renato
  • 20I. Djibrilla
  • 93B. Konate
  • 17Vieirinha
  • 21Guima
  • 22A. Guseynov
  • 9D. Volkovi
  • 7E. Aydin
Substitutes
  • 72H. Quliyev
  • 99S. Hashimov
  • 2A. Seydiyev
  • 8I. Ibrahimli
  • 10G. Papunashvili
  • 11Martins Junior
  • 14E. Alicanov
  • 23D. Smith
  • 27L. Bayere Junior
Coach: Rashad Sadiqov
Paide
  • 99E. Jarju
  • 7E. Tur
  • 27N. Baranov
  • 3Victor Hugo
  • 2M. Lilander
  • 10M. Miller
  • 28O. Hoim
  • 11M. P. Sohna
  • 77D. Luts
  • 30A. Badamosi
  • 19S. Luts
Substitutes
  • 12M. Meerits
  • 56M. Sapp
  • 4Andrade
  • 6Daniel Cabral
  • 8H. Ojamaa
  • 9H. Anier
  • 14M. Jobarteh
  • 17P. A. Cham
  • 20K. Piht
Coach: Tarmo Kink

Form going into Zira vs Paide

Zira

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Paide23 July 2026

Paide

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Zira23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Zira vs Paide

  • 23 July 2026Paide 1–0 ZiraUEFA Europa Conference League

The result against the call

Zira and Paide drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Zira at 63% and given a draw 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: E. Aydin 5' for Zira, H. Anier 71' for Paide.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.