Zira
vs
Paide
Final score: Zira 1-1 Paide.
Before kick-off the model made it 65% Zira, 18% draw, 17% Paide — fair odds of 1.54, 5.56 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Zira 2.57, Paide 1.29.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Match stats: Zira vs Paide
Goals: E. Aydin 5' for Zira, H. Anier 71' for Paide.
Head-to-head: Zira vs Paide
- 30 July 2026Zira 1–1 PaideUEFA Europa Conference League
- 23 July 2026Paide 1–0 ZiraUEFA Europa Conference League
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zira the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.57 expected goals for Zira against 1.29 for Paide. Zira's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/2.23 for Paide.