Tondela
vs
Farense
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Tondela 1–0 Farense
The model makes it 42% Tondela, 28% draw, 30% Farense — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Tondela 1.45, Farense 1.12.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,574 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 1 November 2026. Tondela's rating is built from 8 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Farense's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Tondela are 9th on 12 points from 8 games; Farense are 6th on 14 points from 8 games — Segunda Liga.
- Tondela have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to AVS.
- Farense have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Penafiel.
- Last 5 meetings: Farense 3 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 27 September 2023, ended Farense 1–0 Tondela.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Tondela vs Farense
Has the model earned this number?
Tondela at 42%: of 2,529 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.4% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Tondela vs Farense
Tondela
Segunda Liga
- L1-2away to AVS25 October 2026
- W1-0Torreense10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Portimonense12 September 2026
- W3-0FC Porto B5 September 2026
- L0-2away to União de Leiria28 August 2026
Farense
Segunda Liga
- L1-4Penafiel24 October 2026
- W2-1Feirense11 October 2026
- W4-0Chaves4 October 2026
- D0-0away to AVS13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sporting CP B30 August 2026
What these results say
- Tondela scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Farense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Farense had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tondela | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 12 |
| 6 | Farense | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Tondela vs Farense
- 27 September 2023Farense 1–0 TondelaTaça da Liga
- 28 May 2023Farense 3–1 TondelaSegunda Liga
- 22 January 2023Tondela 1–0 FarenseSegunda Liga
- 15 May 2021Farense 1–0 TondelaPrimeira Liga
- 30 January 2021Tondela 2–0 FarensePrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Tondela and Farense
Tondela
GoalsAssists
- Cascavel10
Farense
GoalsAssists
- Gonçalo Silva10
- S. Singh10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Tondela carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.45 for Farense.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Tondela and 1.12 for Farense.
Tondela rate 0.61 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Farense rate 0.66 and 1.46.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Farense, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Tondela a 2% chance of the title and Farense 3.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tondela the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Tondela against 1.12 for Farense. Tondela's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.46 for Farense.
How the model reaches 42% for Tondela to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Tondela to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Tondela's ratings take away 1 point and Farense's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Tondela's ratings42%−1
- Farense's ratings42%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Tondela at home · Farense away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Tondela 8, Farense 8.
Tondela score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Farense have let in 1 there.
Farense score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Tondela have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Tondela
- at Chaves28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 37%
- vs Penafiel6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 37%
- at Lusitânia Lourosa13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 27%
Farense
- vs União de Leiria28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 46%
- at Vizela6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 33%
- vs Amarante13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 53%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.