USM Alger
vs
MC Alger
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: USM Alger 1–0 MC Alger
The model makes it 36% USM Alger, 30% draw, 34% MC Alger — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: USM Alger 1.20, MC Alger 1.14.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 961 settled matches.
A tight game: USM Alger and MC Alger are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. USM Alger's rating is built from 35 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and MC Alger's from 33, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- USM Alger are 5th on 10 points from 5 games; MC Alger are 8th on 7 points from 3 games — Ligue 1.
- USM Alger have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to JS Saoura.
- MC Alger are unbeaten in their last 3 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to ASO Chlef.
- Last 6 meetings: MC Alger 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 April 2026, ended MC Alger 1–0 USM Alger.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: USM Alger vs MC Alger
Has the model earned this number?
It puts USM Alger at 36% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into USM Alger vs MC Alger
USM Alger
Ligue 1
- W1-0JS Saoura13 October 2026
- L0-1away to MB Rouisset8 October 2026
- W3-2away to Olympique Akbou19 September 2026
- W2-0JS El Biar10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Khenchela4 September 2026
MC Alger
Ligue 1
- D1-1away to ASO Chlef13 October 2026
- W1-0Témouchent9 October 2026
- W2-0MB Rouisset18 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for USM Alger had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | USM Alger | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | MC Alger | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: USM Alger vs MC Alger
- 1 April 2026MC Alger 1–0 USM AlgerLigue 1
- 17 January 2026MC Alger 1–0 USM AlgerSuper Cup
- 31 August 2025USM Alger 0–0 MC AlgerLigue 1
- 23 May 2025MC Alger 1–0 USM AlgerLigue 1
- 24 January 2025USM Alger 0–3 MC AlgerLigue 1
- 17 May 2024MC Alger 1–0 USM AlgerLigue 1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
USM Alger carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.5 for MC Alger. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for USM Alger and 1.14 for MC Alger. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
USM Alger rate 0.58 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; MC Alger rate 0.62 and 1.27.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives USM Alger a 6.2% chance of the title and MC Alger 18.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives USM Alger the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for USM Alger against 1.14 for MC Alger. USM Alger's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.27 for MC Alger.
How the model reaches 36% for USM Alger to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for USM Alger to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, USM Alger's ratings take away 23 points and MC Alger's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- USM Alger's ratings21%−23
- MC Alger's ratings36%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
USM Alger at home · MC Alger away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: USM Alger 5, MC Alger 3.
USM Alger score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); MC Alger have let in 0 there.
MC Alger score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); USM Alger have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.