Club America
vs
Toluca
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Club America 2–1 Toluca
The model makes it 47% Club America, 24% draw, 29% Toluca — fair odds of 2.13, 4.17 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Club America 2.05, Toluca 1.51.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Club America are top on 24 points from 11 games; Toluca are 2nd on 21 points from 12 games — Liga MX.
- Club America are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 5-3 win away to Leon.
- Toluca are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Atletico San Luis.
- Last 6 meetings: Toluca 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Club America 2–1 Toluca.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Club America vs Toluca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club America at 47% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Club America vs Toluca
Club America
- W5-3away to Leon18 October 2026
- D1-1Monterrey11 October 2026
- W4-2away to Necaxa28 September 2026
- D2-2Guadalajara Chivas20 September 2026
- L3-4away to Cruz Azul13 September 2026
Toluca
- D1-1Atletico San Luis18 October 2026
- L2-3away to Tigres UANL10 October 2026
- D3-3away to Cruz Azul26 September 2026
- L2-3Santos Laguna21 September 2026
- W1-0away to Puebla16 September 2026
What these results say
- Club America scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Club America conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Club America.
- Toluca scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Toluca failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Toluca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 14 | +13 | 24 |
| 2 | Toluca | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 16 | +10 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Club America
Chance to finish top of the Apertura · 62% today
Toluca
Chance to finish in the top four · 59% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Club America vs Toluca
- 19 April 2026Club America 2–1 TolucaLiga MX
- 9 November 2025Toluca 2–0 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 21 July 2025Club America 1–3 TolucaCampeón de Campeones
- 26 May 2025Toluca 2–0 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 23 May 2025Club America 0–0 TolucaLiga MX
- 1 March 2025Club America 3–0 TolucaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Club America and Toluca
Club America
GoalsAssists
- H. Martín73
- B. Rodríguez42
- M. Borja40
Toluca
GoalsAssists
- F. Viñas50
- A. Vega42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Club America carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.74 for Toluca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.05 goals for Club America and 1.51 for Toluca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Club America rate 1.00 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Toluca rate 0.95 and 1.18.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Club America a 62.4% chance of the title and Toluca 9.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club America the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Club America against 1.51 for Toluca. Club America's attack/defence rating is 1/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.18 for Toluca.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Club America at home · Toluca away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Club AmericaToluca
Club America are 1st after 11 Liga MX matches (between 1st and 8th so far); Toluca are 2nd after 12 (between 1st and 6th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Club America 11, Toluca 11.
Club America score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Toluca have let in 5 there.
Toluca score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Club America have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Club America
- at Pumas UNAM8 Nov · Liga MXwin 35%
- at Tigres UANL22 Nov · Liga MXwin 33%
Toluca
- vs Monterrey8 Nov · Liga MXwin 56%
- at CF Pachuca21 Nov · Liga MXwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.