Cruz Azul
vs
FC Juarez
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Cruz Azul 2–1 FC Juarez
The model makes it 59% Cruz Azul, 23% draw, 18% FC Juarez — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Cruz Azul 2.80, FC Juarez 1.05.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Cruz Azul are 7th on 16 points from 10 games; FC Juarez are bottom on 3 points from 10 games — Liga MX.
- Cruz Azul have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Toluca.
- FC Juarez have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Leon.
- Last 6 meetings: Cruz Azul 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 January 2026, ended FC Juarez 3–4 Cruz Azul.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cruz Azul at 59% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 705 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez
Cruz Azul
- D3-3Toluca26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Monterrey20 September 2026
- W4-3Club America13 September 2026
- W1-0Santos Laguna6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Necaxa29 August 2026
FC Juarez
- L1-2away to Leon28 September 2026
- W2-0Tigres UANL19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Santos Laguna14 September 2026
- L0-2CF Pachuca5 September 2026
- L0-4away to Toluca31 August 2026
What these results say
- Cruz Azul scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruz Azul conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Juarez failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Juarez conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 16 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez
- 31 January 2026FC Juarez 3–4 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 20 September 2025Cruz Azul 3–2 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 18 January 2025FC Juarez 1–0 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 24 October 2024Cruz Azul 4–0 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 20 January 2024FC Juarez 0–0 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 2 November 2023Cruz Azul 2–0 FC JuarezLiga MX
Leading scorers: Cruz Azul and FC Juarez
Cruz Azul
- N. Ibáñez4 goals1 assist
- G. Fernández4 goals1 assist
FC Juarez
- Ó. Estupiñán6 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Cruz Azul carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.35 for FC Juarez. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.80 goals for Cruz Azul and 1.05 for FC Juarez. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cruz Azul rate 0.91 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Juarez rate 0.65 and 1.78.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cruz Azul a 1.1% chance of the title and FC Juarez 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cruz Azul the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.80 expected goals for Cruz Azul against 1.05 for FC Juarez. Cruz Azul's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.78 for FC Juarez.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cruz Azul at home · FC Juarez away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Cruz Azul 10, FC Juarez 10.
FC Juarez score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Cruz Azul have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Cruz Azul
- at CF Pachuca22 Oct · Liga MXwin 30%
- at Club Queretaro26 Oct · Liga MXwin 31%
- vs Leon2 Nov · Liga MXwin 50%
- at Tigres UANL7 Nov · Liga MXwin 32%
FC Juarez
- vs Atlante FC21 Oct · Liga MXwin 35%
- at Necaxa24 Oct · Liga MXwin 28%
- vs Club Queretaro31 Oct · Liga MXwin 29%
- at Atletico San Luis7 Nov · Liga MXwin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.