Toluca

Toluca sit 4th in the Liga MX on 27 points from 16 matches, having scored 35 and conceded 21. On the model's scale they rate 0.97 in attack and 1.15 in defence (1.00 = an average top-flight side, lower defence is better), against Liga MX averages of 0.76 and 1.30: above the division's average at both ends. Across their last 5 league matches they have 1 win and 4 draws, most recently beating Monterrey 4-0 at home. That is 1.69 points a match, scoring 2.19 and conceding 1.31 per game across 7 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats. That leaves them 5 points behind Cruz Azul at the top, in a table of 18. Among the 18 rated sides in the division that is the 3rd-best attack and the 3rd-best defence. They scored in 5 of those 5 and kept 1 clean sheet. Next they travel to CF Pachuca in the Liga MX on 21 November 2026, a match the model gives them 31%.

Model rating

One scale across every league we cover: 1.00 is an average top-flight side — how the ratings are built.

Next match: Toluca vs CF Pachuca

Toluca travel to CF Pachuca at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto on 21 November 2026, 23:00 UTC. The model makes it 31% Toluca, 26% draw and 43% CF Pachuca, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1. It projects 1.36 expected goals for Toluca against 1.69. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

Full preview and model analysis for Toluca vs CF Pachuca

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