Toluca
vs
Atletico San Luis
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Toluca 2–1 Atletico San Luis
The model makes it 55% Toluca, 24% draw, 21% Atletico San Luis — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Toluca 2.47, Atletico San Luis 1.11.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Toluca are top on 20 points from 10 games; Atletico San Luis are 13th on 12 points from 10 games — Liga MX.
- Toluca have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Cruz Azul.
- Atletico San Luis have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win away to Pumas UNAM.
- Last 6 meetings: Toluca 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 April 2026, ended Toluca 1–1 Atletico San Luis.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Toluca vs Atletico San Luis
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Toluca at 55% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 705 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Toluca vs Atletico San Luis
Toluca
- D3-3away to Cruz Azul26 September 2026
- L2-3Santos Laguna21 September 2026
- W1-0away to Puebla16 September 2026
- W5-2Atlas12 September 2026
- W4-0FC Juarez31 August 2026
Atletico San Luis
- W3-2away to Pumas UNAM27 September 2026
- W3-1Necaxa19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Leon15 September 2026
- L0-3Guadalajara Chivas5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Monterrey31 August 2026
What these results say
- Toluca scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Toluca had three goals or more.
- Atletico San Luis conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atletico San Luis had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 20 |
| 13 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Toluca vs Atletico San Luis
- 13 April 2026Toluca 1–1 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
- 30 August 2025Atletico San Luis 1–3 TolucaLiga MX
- 17 April 2025Atletico San Luis 0–1 TolucaLiga MX
- 25 August 2024Toluca 2–1 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
- 20 April 2024Atletico San Luis 1–5 TolucaLiga MX
- 29 October 2023Toluca 3–1 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
Leading scorers: Toluca and Atletico San Luis
Toluca
- A. Vega4 goals2 assists
- F. Viñas4 goals
Atletico San Luis
- D. Rodríguez3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Toluca carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.52 for Atletico San Luis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.47 goals for Toluca and 1.11 for Atletico San Luis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Toluca rate 0.97 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico San Luis rate 0.76 and 1.47.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Toluca a 26.6% chance of the title and Atletico San Luis 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Toluca the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Toluca against 1.11 for Atletico San Luis. Toluca's attack/defence rating is 0.97/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.47 for Atletico San Luis.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Toluca at home · Atletico San Luis away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Toluca 10, Atletico San Luis 10.
Toluca score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Atletico San Luis have let in 1 there.
Atletico San Luis score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Toluca have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Toluca
- vs Club Tijuana22 Oct · Liga MXwin 50%
- at Leon24 Oct · Liga MXwin 40%
- at Club America1 Nov · Liga MXwin 32%
- vs Monterrey8 Nov · Liga MXwin 53%
Atletico San Luis
- vs Club Queretaro21 Oct · Liga MXwin 36%
- at Atlante FC24 Oct · Liga MXwin 30%
- vs Atlas31 Oct · Liga MXwin 42%
- vs FC Juarez7 Nov · Liga MXwin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.