Guadalajara Chivas
vs
Atlante FC
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Guadalajara Chivas 2–0 Atlante FC
The model makes it 61% Guadalajara Chivas, 23% draw, 16% Atlante FC — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Guadalajara Chivas 2.11, Atlante FC 0.84.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Guadalajara Chivas are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Guadalajara Chivas are 4th on 20 points from 12 games; Atlante FC are 16th on 11 points from 12 games — Liga MX.
- Guadalajara Chivas are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Tigres UANL.
- Atlante FC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Pumas UNAM.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Guadalajara Chivas at 61% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC
Guadalajara Chivas
- D1-1Tigres UANL17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Atlas11 October 2026
- L0-2Club Queretaro26 September 2026
- D2-2away to Club America20 September 2026
- W3-0Pumas UNAM14 September 2026
Atlante FC
- L1-2Pumas UNAM17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Club Queretaro10 October 2026
- W4-2Monterrey26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Puebla19 September 2026
- L0-3CF Pachuca12 September 2026
What these results say
- Guadalajara Chivas failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Guadalajara Chivas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Guadalajara Chivas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlante FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atlante FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 20 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Guadalajara Chivas
Chance to finish in the top four · 65% today
Atlante FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 61% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
The two sides
Guadalajara Chivas carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.45 for Atlante FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.11 goals for Guadalajara Chivas and 0.84 for Atlante FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Guadalajara Chivas rate 0.87 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atlante FC rate 0.63 and 1.40.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Guadalajara Chivas a 8.9% chance of the title and Atlante FC 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Guadalajara Chivas the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Guadalajara Chivas against 0.84 for Atlante FC. Guadalajara Chivas's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.4 for Atlante FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Guadalajara Chivas at home · Atlante FC away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Guadalajara ChivasAtlante FC
Guadalajara Chivas are 4th after 12 Liga MX matches (between 1st and 17th so far); Atlante FC are 16th after 12 (between 9th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Guadalajara Chivas 12, Atlante FC 12.
Atlante FC score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Guadalajara Chivas have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Guadalajara Chivas
- at Leon9 Nov · Liga MXwin 43%
- vs Cruz Azul22 Nov · Liga MXwin 48%
Atlante FC
- vs Santos Laguna7 Nov · Liga MXwin 38%
- at Club Tijuana21 Nov · Liga MXwin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.