Atletico San Luis
vs
Club Queretaro
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Atletico San Luis 0–1 Club Queretaro
The model makes it 33% Atletico San Luis, 29% draw, 38% Club Queretaro — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Atletico San Luis 1.24, Club Queretaro 1.36.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Club Queretaro: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Atletico San Luis are 15th on 12 points from 11 games; Club Queretaro are 3rd on 20 points from 10 games — Liga MX.
- Atletico San Luis have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Santos Laguna.
- Club Queretaro are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Atlante FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Club Queretaro 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 June 2026, ended Club Queretaro 2–2 Atletico San Luis.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atletico San Luis vs Club Queretaro
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Queretaro at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atletico San Luis vs Club Queretaro
Atletico San Luis
- L1-2Santos Laguna11 October 2026
- W3-2away to Pumas UNAM27 September 2026
- W3-1Necaxa19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Leon15 September 2026
- L0-3Guadalajara Chivas5 September 2026
Club Queretaro
- W2-0Atlante FC10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Guadalajara Chivas26 September 2026
- D1-1Leon21 September 2026
- W1-0away to Club Tijuana12 September 2026
- W3-1away to Atlas29 August 2026
What these results say
- Atletico San Luis conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atletico San Luis had three goals or more.
- Club Queretaro went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Club Queretaro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Club Queretaro won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
| 3 | Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Atletico San Luis
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 23% today
Club Queretaro
Chance to finish top of the Apertura · 31% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Atletico San Luis vs Club Queretaro
- 26 June 2026Club Queretaro 2–2 Atletico San LuisFriendlies Clubs
- 14 February 2026Atletico San Luis 3–0 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 23 August 2025Club Queretaro 3–2 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
- 8 February 2025Club Queretaro 1–0 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
- 19 August 2024Atletico San Luis 4–0 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 28 February 2024Club Queretaro 4–1 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
Leading scorers: Atletico San Luis and Club Queretaro
Atletico San Luis
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Club Queretaro
GoalsAssists
- S. Homenchenko52
- A. Ávila40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Atletico San Luis carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.71 for Club Queretaro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for Atletico San Luis and 1.36 for Club Queretaro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico San Luis rate 0.73 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Queretaro rate 0.71 and 0.98.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atletico San Luis a 0% chance of the title and Club Queretaro 30.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club Queretaro the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Atletico San Luis against 1.36 for Club Queretaro. Atletico San Luis's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/0.98 for Club Queretaro.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atletico San Luis at home · Club Queretaro away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Atletico San LuisClub Queretaro
Atletico San Luis are 15th after 11 Liga MX matches (between 12th and 16th so far); Club Queretaro are 3rd after 10 (between 3rd and 14th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Atletico San Luis 11, Club Queretaro 10.
Atletico San Luis score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Club Queretaro have let in 2 there.
Club Queretaro score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Atletico San Luis have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Atletico San Luis
- at Atlante FC24 Oct · Liga MXwin 29%
- vs Atlas31 Oct · Liga MXwin 43%
- vs FC Juarez7 Nov · Liga MXwin 55%
- at Puebla21 Nov · Liga MXwin 31%
Club Queretaro
- vs Cruz Azul26 Oct · Liga MXwin 44%
- at FC Juarez31 Oct · Liga MXwin 45%
- vs Puebla9 Nov · Liga MXwin 54%
- vs Monterrey14 Nov · Liga MXwin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.