Monterrey
vs
CF Pachuca
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Monterrey 2–1 CF Pachuca
The model makes it 36% Monterrey, 29% draw, 35% CF Pachuca — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Monterrey 1.40, CF Pachuca 1.36.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Monterrey and CF Pachuca are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Monterrey are 10th on 13 points from 9 games; CF Pachuca are 11th on 12 points from 10 games — Liga MX.
- Monterrey have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Atlante FC.
- CF Pachuca have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Santos Laguna.
- Last 6 meetings: CF Pachuca 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Monterrey 1–3 CF Pachuca.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Monterrey vs CF Pachuca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Monterrey at 36% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 2,396 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Monterrey vs CF Pachuca
Monterrey
- L2-4away to Atlante FC26 September 2026
- W1-0Cruz Azul20 September 2026
- D0-0Tigres UANL13 September 2026
- L1-3Atletico San Luis31 August 2026
- L0-2away to Leon22 August 2026
CF Pachuca
- L0-1away to Santos Laguna27 September 2026
- D2-2Club Tijuana21 September 2026
- W3-0away to Atlante FC12 September 2026
- W2-0away to FC Juarez5 September 2026
- D1-1Guadalajara Chivas29 August 2026
What these results say
- Monterrey failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- CF Pachuca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Monterrey | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 |
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Monterrey vs CF Pachuca
- 19 April 2026Monterrey 1–3 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 13 July 2025CF Pachuca 3–0 MonterreyLiga MX
- 28 April 2025Monterrey 1–2 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 26 January 2025Monterrey 2–3 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 8 July 2024CF Pachuca 0–1 MonterreyLiga MX
- 11 February 2024Monterrey 3–2 CF PachucaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Monterrey and CF Pachuca
Monterrey
- L. Ocampos5 goals1 assist
CF Pachuca
- S. Rondón10 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Monterrey carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.69 for CF Pachuca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Monterrey and 1.36 for CF Pachuca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Monterrey rate 0.78 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CF Pachuca rate 0.75 and 1.04.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Monterrey a 0.4% chance of the title and CF Pachuca 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Monterrey the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Monterrey against 1.36 for CF Pachuca. Monterrey's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.04 for CF Pachuca.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Monterrey at home · CF Pachuca away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Monterrey 9, CF Pachuca 10.
Monterrey score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); CF Pachuca have let in 2 there.
CF Pachuca score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Monterrey have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Monterrey
- at Puebla22 Oct · Liga MXwin 34%
- vs Guadalajara Chivas25 Oct · Liga MXwin 33%
- vs Club Tijuana1 Nov · Liga MXwin 40%
- at Toluca8 Nov · Liga MXwin 22%
CF Pachuca
- vs Cruz Azul22 Oct · Liga MXwin 42%
- at Club America25 Oct · Liga MXwin 28%
- vs Tigres UANL31 Oct · Liga MXwin 42%
- at Atlas7 Nov · Liga MXwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.