Aarhus Fremad
vs
Hillerød
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Aarhus Fremad 1–0 Hillerød
The model makes it 47% Aarhus Fremad, 29% draw, 24% Hillerød — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Aarhus Fremad 1.44, Hillerød 0.87.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Aarhus Fremad are 6th on 14 points from 11 games; Hillerød are 11th on 9 points from 10 games — 1. Division.
- Aarhus Fremad are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Esbjerg.
- Hillerød have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to FC Fredericia.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended Hillerød 1–1 Aarhus Fremad.
More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerød
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aarhus Fremad at 47% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerød
Aarhus Fremad
- D0-0Esbjerg16 October 2026
- L0-2away to AB Copenhagen9 October 2026
- L1-3Hvidovre19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Vendsyssel FF11 September 2026
- W2-1Kolding IF6 September 2026
Hillerød
- L0-2FC Fredericia10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Kolding IF18 September 2026
- W1-0AB Copenhagen12 September 2026
- D1-1away to HB Koge4 September 2026
- W3-1Hobro30 August 2026
What these results say
- Aarhus Fremad failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hillerød scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hillerød conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hillerød had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aarhus Fremad | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Hillerød | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerød
- 15 August 2026Hillerød 1–1 Aarhus Fremad1. Division
- 21 March 2026Hillerød 1–0 Aarhus Fremad1. Division
- 9 August 2025Aarhus Fremad 3–1 Hillerød1. Division
- 19 March 2022Aarhus Fremad 3–1 Hillerød2. Division
- 4 September 2021Hillerød 1–0 Aarhus Fremad2. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aarhus Fremad carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.14 for Hillerød. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Aarhus Fremad and 0.87 for Hillerød. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aarhus Fremad rate 0.45 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hillerød rate 0.48 and 1.97.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Aarhus Fremad a 0.2% chance of the title and Hillerød 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aarhus Fremad the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Aarhus Fremad against 0.87 for Hillerød. Aarhus Fremad's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.97 for Hillerød.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aarhus Fremad at home · Hillerød away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Aarhus Fremad 11, Hillerød 10.
Hillerød score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Aarhus Fremad have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Aarhus Fremad
- at Hvidovre9 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 24%
- vs Hobro20 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 50%
- at HB Koge28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 32%
- vs AB Copenhagen4 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 39%
Hillerød
- vs Kolding IF7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 42%
- at FC Fredericia19 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 17%
- vs Vendsyssel FF28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.