Leon
vs
Club America
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Leon 1–2 Club America
The model makes it 33% Leon, 28% draw, 39% Club America — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Leon 1.42, Club America 1.63.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Leon are 5th on 17 points from 10 games; Club America are 2nd on 20 points from 9 games — Liga MX.
- Leon are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-1 win at home to FC Juarez.
- Club America have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 4-2 win away to Necaxa.
- Last 6 meetings: Club America 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended Leon 1–0 Club America.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Leon vs Club America
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club America at 39% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Leon vs Club America
Leon
- W2-1FC Juarez28 September 2026
- D1-1away to Club Queretaro21 September 2026
- W2-0Atletico San Luis15 September 2026
- L1-3away to Pumas UNAM11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atlante FC29 August 2026
Club America
- W4-2away to Necaxa28 September 2026
- D2-2Guadalajara Chivas20 September 2026
- L3-4away to Cruz Azul13 September 2026
- W2-0Puebla30 August 2026
- W2-1away to FC Juarez22 August 2026
What these results say
- Leon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Leon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Leon.
- Club America scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Club America conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Club America had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Leon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 2 | Club America | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Leon vs Club America
- 6 September 2026Leon 1–0 Club AmericaLeagues Cup
- 22 April 2026Leon 2–3 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 2 November 2025Club America 2–0 LeonLiga MX
- 20 February 2025Club America 1–1 LeonLiga MX
- 6 October 2024Leon 1–1 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 11 February 2024Leon 0–1 Club AmericaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Leon and Club America
Leon
- D. Arcila4 goals
- D. Cambindo3 goals1 assist
Club America
- H. Martín6 goals2 assists
- M. Borja4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Leon carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.74 for Club America. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Leon and 1.63 for Club America. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Leon rate 0.69 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club America rate 0.95 and 1.19.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leon a 0.9% chance of the title and Club America 37.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club America the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Leon against 1.63 for Club America. Leon's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.19 for Club America.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Leon at home · Club America away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Leon 10, Club America 9.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Leon
- at Tigres UANL21 Oct · Liga MXwin 26%
- vs Toluca24 Oct · Liga MXwin 32%
- at Cruz Azul2 Nov · Liga MXwin 24%
- vs Guadalajara Chivas9 Nov · Liga MXwin 32%
Club America
- at Atlas22 Oct · Liga MXwin 38%
- vs CF Pachuca25 Oct · Liga MXwin 44%
- vs Club Tijuana29 Oct · Liga MXwin 48%
- vs Toluca1 Nov · Liga MXwin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.