Monterrey
vs
Club Tijuana
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Monterrey 2–1 Club Tijuana
The model makes it 44% Monterrey, 27% draw, 29% Club Tijuana — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Monterrey 1.58, Club Tijuana 1.19.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Monterrey are 12th on 14 points from 10 games; Club Tijuana are 9th on 16 points from 11 games — Liga MX.
- Monterrey have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Club America.
- Club Tijuana have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Puebla.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 1 February 2026, ended Monterrey 2–2 Club Tijuana.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Monterrey vs Club Tijuana
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Monterrey at 44% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Monterrey vs Club Tijuana
Monterrey
- D1-1away to Club America11 October 2026
- L2-4away to Atlante FC26 September 2026
- W1-0Cruz Azul20 September 2026
- D0-0Tigres UANL13 September 2026
- L1-3Atletico San Luis31 August 2026
Club Tijuana
- D0-0Puebla17 October 2026
- D1-1away to FC Juarez10 October 2026
- L2-3Atlas26 September 2026
- D2-2away to CF Pachuca21 September 2026
- L0-1Club Queretaro12 September 2026
What these results say
- Monterrey failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Monterrey scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Tijuana did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Club Tijuana conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Monterrey
Chance to finish in the top four · 8% today
Club Tijuana
Chance to finish in the top four · 10% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Club Tijuana vs Monterrey
Club Tijuana and Monterrey have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 1 each, with 4 drawn.
The record
They drew 2–2 at Monterrey on 1 Feb 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Tijuana | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 11 |
| Monterrey | 1 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 10 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 21 goals, an average of 3.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Feb 2026
Liga MXMonterrey 2–2 Club Tijuana - 6 Oct 2025
Liga MXClub Tijuana 2–2 Monterrey - 30 Mar 2025
Liga MXMonterrey 1–2 Club Tijuana - 24 Aug 2024
Liga MXClub Tijuana 2–2 Monterrey - 29 Feb 2024
Liga MXClub Tijuana 1–1 Monterrey - 26 Oct 2023
Liga MXMonterrey 3–1 Club Tijuana
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Club Tijuana | 0.70 | 1.18 |
| Monterrey | 0.77 | 1.33 |
Leading scorers: Monterrey and Club Tijuana
Monterrey
GoalsAssists
- L. Ocampos51
Club Tijuana
GoalsAssists
- G. Mora51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Monterrey carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.59 for Club Tijuana. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Monterrey and 1.19 for Club Tijuana. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Monterrey rate 0.77 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Tijuana rate 0.70 and 1.18.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Club Tijuana, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Monterrey a 0.3% chance of the title and Club Tijuana 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,111 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Monterrey the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Monterrey against 1.19 for Club Tijuana. Monterrey's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.18 for Club Tijuana.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Monterrey at home · Club Tijuana away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
MonterreyClub Tijuana
Monterrey are 10th after 10 Liga MX matches (between 1st and 11th so far); Club Tijuana are 8th after 11 (between 1st and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Monterrey 10, Club Tijuana 11.
Monterrey score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Club Tijuana have let in 2 there.
Club Tijuana score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Monterrey have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Monterrey
- at Toluca8 Nov · Liga MXwin 21%
- at Club Queretaro14 Nov · Liga MXwin 28%
Club Tijuana
- at Necaxa7 Nov · Liga MXwin 38%
- vs Atlante FC21 Nov · Liga MXwin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.