Macarthur FC
vs
Brisbane Roar
A-League prediction
Our model says: Macarthur FC 2–1 Brisbane Roar
The model makes it 42% Macarthur FC, 26% draw, 32% Brisbane Roar — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Macarthur FC 1.74, Brisbane Roar 1.43.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Macarthur FC are 3rd on 4 points from 2 games; Brisbane Roar are 5th on 3 points from 1 game — A-League.
- Last 6 meetings: Macarthur FC 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 December 2025, ended Macarthur FC 2–1 Brisbane Roar.
More A-League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Macarthur FC vs Brisbane Roar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Macarthur FC at 42% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Macarthur FC vs Brisbane Roar
Macarthur FC
A-League
- D1-1away to Newcastle Jets24 October 2026
- W2-1Perth Glory17 October 2026
Brisbane Roar
A-League
- W2-1Perth Glory23 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Macarthur FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 5 | Brisbane Roar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Macarthur FC vs Brisbane Roar
- 19 December 2025Macarthur FC 2–1 Brisbane RoarA-League
- 17 October 2025Brisbane Roar 1–0 Macarthur FCA-League
- 4 April 2025Brisbane Roar 1–5 Macarthur FCA-League
- 30 November 2024Macarthur FC 4–4 Brisbane RoarA-League
- 16 March 2024Brisbane Roar 1–2 Macarthur FCA-League
- 18 January 2024Brisbane Roar 1–3 Macarthur FCA-League
Leading scorers: Macarthur FC and Brisbane Roar
Macarthur FC
GoalsAssists
- R. Fraser12
- M. Toure10
- J. Aspropotamitis10
Brisbane Roar
GoalsAssists
- Nam Tae-Hee10
- J. Vidic10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Macarthur FC carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.22 for Brisbane Roar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Macarthur FC and 1.43 for Brisbane Roar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Macarthur FC rate 0.59 in attack and 1.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Brisbane Roar rate 0.51 and 1.79.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Macarthur FC the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Macarthur FC against 1.43 for Brisbane Roar. Macarthur FC's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.79 for Brisbane Roar.
How the model reaches 42% for Macarthur FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Macarthur FC to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Macarthur FC's ratings take away 26 points and Brisbane Roar's ratings add 29 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage39%+2
- Macarthur FC's ratings13%−26
- Brisbane Roar's ratings42%+29
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Macarthur FC
- at Wellington Phoenix22 Nov · A-Leaguewin 36%
- vs Melbourne City27 Nov · A-Leaguewin 40%
- at Adelaide United11 Dec · A-Leaguewin 33%
- vs Central Coast Mariners21 Dec · A-Leaguewin 45%
Brisbane Roar
- vs Sydney FC21 Nov · A-Leaguewin 30%
- at Central Coast Mariners12 Dec · A-Leaguewin 37%
- at Adelaide United15 Dec · A-Leaguewin 30%
- vs Western Sydney Wanderers19 Dec · A-Leaguewin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.