Burton Albion
vs
Luton
League One prediction
Our model says: Burton Albion 1–2 Luton
The model makes it 32% Burton Albion, 27% draw, 41% Luton — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Burton Albion 1.35, Luton 1.57.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Luton: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Burton Albion's rating is built from 60 League One matches and Luton's from 60, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,272 matches.
Key facts
- Burton Albion are 15th on 17 points from 14 games; Luton are 4th on 24 points from 14 games — League One.
- Burton Albion have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Wycombe.
- Luton are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Huddersfield.
- Last 6 meetings: Burton Albion 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended Luton 1–1 Burton Albion.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Burton Albion vs Luton
Has the model earned this number?
Luton at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Burton Albion vs Luton
Burton Albion
League One
- L0-2away to Wycombe31 October 2026
- W2-1Leyton Orient24 October 2026
- D0-0Bradford20 October 2026
- D2-2away to Peterborough17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Doncaster10 October 2026
Luton
League One
- D1-1away to Huddersfield3 November 2026
- W2-0away to Peterborough31 October 2026
- W3-1Doncaster27 October 2026
- W2-1Leicester24 October 2026
- W2-1Barnsley20 October 2026
What these results say
- Burton Albion failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burton Albion conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Luton went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Luton scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Luton won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Burton Albion | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 17 |
| 4 | Luton | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 21 | +6 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Burton Albion
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 12% today
Luton
Chance to finish in the top two · 22% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Burton Albion vs Luton
- 21 February 2026Luton 1–1 Burton AlbionLeague One
- 30 August 2025Burton Albion 0–3 LutonLeague One
- 27 April 2019Burton Albion 2–1 LutonLeague One
- 22 December 2018Luton 2–0 Burton AlbionLeague One
- 11 April 2015Luton 0–1 Burton AlbionLeague Two
- 22 November 2014Burton Albion 1–0 LutonLeague Two
Leading scorers: Burton Albion and Luton
Burton Albion
No player in League One's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Luton
GoalsAssists
- N. Wells72
- J. Donley43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Burton Albion a 0.1% chance of the title and Luton 10.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Luton the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Burton Albion against 1.57 for Luton. Burton Albion's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.73 for Luton.
How the model reaches 41% for Luton to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Luton to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Burton Albion's ratings add 4 points and Luton's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Burton Albion's ratings35%+4
- Luton's ratings41%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Burton Albion at home · Luton away
League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Burton Albion 14, Luton 14.
Burton Albion score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Luton have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Burton Albion
- at Bromley28 Nov · League Onewin 47%
- vs Wigan1 Dec · League Onewin 45%
- vs Reading12 Dec · League Onewin 32%
- at Blackpool19 Dec · League Onewin 32%
Luton
- vs Oxford United28 Nov · League Onewin 35%
- at Blackpool1 Dec · League Onewin 42%
- vs Wigan12 Dec · League Onewin 57%
- at Sheffield Wednesday19 Dec · League Onewin 33%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.