Leicester
vs
Bradford
League One prediction
Our model says: Leicester 1–0 Bradford
The model makes it 36% Leicester, 32% draw, 32% Bradford — fair odds of 2.78, 3.13 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Leicester 1.05, Bradford 0.98.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,094 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Leicester's rating is built from 12 League One matches and Bradford's from 60, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,257 matches.
Key facts
- Leicester are 11th on 18 points from 12 games; Bradford are 4th on 22 points from 12 games — League One.
- Leicester have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Wigan.
- Bradford are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Oxford United.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Leicester vs Bradford
Has the model earned this number?
Leicester at 36%: of 3,980 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.7% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Leicester vs Bradford
Leicester
League One
- W3-0Wigan27 October 2026
- L1-2away to Luton24 October 2026
- W4-0away to Bromley20 October 2026
- W2-1Doncaster17 October 2026
- L1-3Peterborough10 October 2026
Bradford
League One
- D0-0away to Oxford United24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Burton Albion20 October 2026
- W2-0Stevenage17 October 2026
- D0-0Leyton Orient10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Reading3 October 2026
What these results say
- Leicester scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Leicester had three goals or more.
- Bradford went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Bradford had two goals or fewer.
- Bradford failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Leicester | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 18 |
| 4 | Bradford | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Leicester and Bradford
Leicester
GoalsAssists
- E. Riis61
Bradford
No player in League One's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Leicester carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.46 for Bradford.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.05 goals for Leicester and 0.98 for Bradford.
Leicester rate 0.64 in attack and 1.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bradford rate 0.43 and 1.08.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bradford, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leicester a 1.3% chance of the title and Bradford 4.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leicester the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Leicester against 0.98 for Bradford. Leicester's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.08 for Bradford.
How the model reaches 36% for Leicester to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Leicester to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Leicester's ratings change nothing and Bradford's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level39%−3
- Leicester's ratings39%±0
- Bradford's ratings36%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Leicester at home · Bradford away
League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Leicester 12, Bradford 12.
Leicester score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Bradford have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Leicester
- at Huddersfield21 Nov · League Onewin 25%
- at Blackpool24 Nov · League Onewin 39%
- vs Mansfield Town28 Nov · League Onewin 39%
- at Cambridge United1 Dec · League Onewin 32%
Bradford
- vs Doncaster21 Nov · League Onewin 46%
- vs Barnsley24 Nov · League Onewin 50%
- at Wycombe28 Nov · League Onewin 36%
- vs Milton Keynes Dons1 Dec · League Onewin 47%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.