Sheffield Wednesday
vs
Plymouth
League One prediction
Our model says: Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 Plymouth
The model makes it 45% Sheffield Wednesday, 25% draw, 30% Plymouth — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sheffield Wednesday 1.80, Plymouth 1.36.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,421 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Sheffield Wednesday's rating is built from 12 League One matches and Plymouth's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,257 matches.
Key facts
- Sheffield Wednesday are 9th on 19 points from 12 games; Plymouth are 5th on 22 points from 13 games — League One.
- Sheffield Wednesday are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Cambridge United.
- Plymouth have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Cambridge United.
- Last 6 meetings: Sheffield Wednesday 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 March 2025, ended Plymouth 0–3 Sheffield Wednesday.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth
Has the model earned this number?
Sheffield Wednesday at 45%: of 2,421 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.2% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth
Sheffield Wednesday
League One
- D1-1Cambridge United27 October 2026
- L0-2away to Doncaster24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Notts County20 October 2026
- W5-0AFC Wimbledon17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Huddersfield10 October 2026
Plymouth
League One
- W3-2away to Cambridge United24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Stevenage20 October 2026
- L0-2Huddersfield17 October 2026
- W2-1AFC Wimbledon10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Leyton Orient3 October 2026
What these results say
- Sheffield Wednesday failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sheffield Wednesday conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Plymouth conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sheffield Wednesday | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 19 |
| 5 | Plymouth | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth
- 8 March 2025Plymouth 0–3 Sheffield WednesdayChampionship
- 11 August 2024Sheffield Wednesday 4–0 PlymouthChampionship
- 5 March 2024Sheffield Wednesday 1–0 PlymouthChampionship
- 25 October 2023Plymouth 3–0 Sheffield WednesdayChampionship
- 4 February 2023Sheffield Wednesday 1–0 PlymouthLeague One
- 4 October 2022Plymouth 2–1 Sheffield WednesdayLeague One
Leading scorers: Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth
Sheffield Wednesday
GoalsAssists
- J. Lowe52
Plymouth
GoalsAssists
- A. Pepple50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sheffield Wednesday carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.36 for Plymouth.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 1.36 for Plymouth.
Sheffield Wednesday rate 0.64 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Plymouth rate 0.68 and 1.84.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Plymouth, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sheffield Wednesday a 4.8% chance of the title and Plymouth 5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sheffield Wednesday the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday against 1.36 for Plymouth. Sheffield Wednesday's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.84 for Plymouth.
How the model reaches 45% for Sheffield Wednesday to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sheffield Wednesday to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Sheffield Wednesday's ratings add 1 point and Plymouth's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level43%+1
- Sheffield Wednesday's ratings44%+1
- Plymouth's ratings45%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sheffield Wednesday at home · Plymouth away
League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Sheffield Wednesday 12, Plymouth 13.
Sheffield Wednesday score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Plymouth have let in 3 there.
Plymouth score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Sheffield Wednesday have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sheffield Wednesday
- at Barnsley20 Nov · League Onewin 45%
- at Stevenage24 Nov · League Onewin 34%
- vs Reading28 Nov · League Onewin 41%
- at Oxford United1 Dec · League Onewin 26%
Plymouth
- vs Peterborough21 Nov · League Onewin 55%
- at Wigan28 Nov · League Onewin 44%
- vs Bromley1 Dec · League Onewin 70%
- at Notts County12 Dec · League Onewin 36%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.