Leyton Orient
vs
AFC Wimbledon
League One prediction
Our model says: Leyton Orient 1–0 AFC Wimbledon
The model makes it 54% Leyton Orient, 27% draw, 19% AFC Wimbledon — fair odds of 1.85, 3.70 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Leyton Orient 1.70, AFC Wimbledon 0.81.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Leyton Orient: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Leyton Orient's rating is built from 59 League One matches and AFC Wimbledon's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,272 matches.
Key facts
- Leyton Orient are 14th on 17 points from 13 games; AFC Wimbledon are 18th on 13 points from 13 games — League One.
- Leyton Orient have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Cambridge United.
- AFC Wimbledon have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Stockport County.
- Last 6 meetings: Leyton Orient 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 August 2026, ended Leyton Orient 1–1 AFC Wimbledon.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon
Has the model earned this number?
Leyton Orient at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon
Leyton Orient
League One
- W3-0Cambridge United31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Burton Albion24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Reading21 October 2026
- W2-0Blackpool17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Bradford10 October 2026
AFC Wimbledon
League One
- L1-2away to Stockport County31 October 2026
- D1-1Wycombe24 October 2026
- L0-3Mansfield Town20 October 2026
- L0-5away to Sheffield Wednesday17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Plymouth10 October 2026
What these results say
- AFC Wimbledon did not win any of these 5 matches.
- AFC Wimbledon conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for AFC Wimbledon had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Leyton Orient | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 17 |
| 18 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
AFC Wimbledon
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 64% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon
- 18 August 2026Leyton Orient 1–1 AFC WimbledonEFL Trophy
- 17 March 2026AFC Wimbledon 2–4 Leyton OrientLeague One
- 1 January 2026Leyton Orient 1–3 AFC WimbledonLeague One
- 4 February 2023Leyton Orient 1–0 AFC WimbledonLeague Two
- 8 November 2022AFC Wimbledon 2–0 Leyton OrientLeague Two
- 6 October 2020Leyton Orient 2–0 AFC WimbledonEFL Trophy
Leading scorers: Leyton Orient and AFC Wimbledon
Leyton Orient
GoalsAssists
- J. Kabia42
AFC Wimbledon
GoalsAssists
- J. Stockley61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leyton Orient a 0.3% chance of the title and AFC Wimbledon 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leyton Orient the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Leyton Orient against 0.81 for AFC Wimbledon. Leyton Orient's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/2.06 for AFC Wimbledon.
How the model reaches 54% for Leyton Orient to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Leyton Orient to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Leyton Orient's ratings add 7 points and AFC Wimbledon's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level40%−2
- Leyton Orient's ratings47%+7
- AFC Wimbledon's ratings54%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Leyton Orient at home · AFC Wimbledon away
League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Leyton Orient 13, AFC Wimbledon 13.
AFC Wimbledon score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Leyton Orient have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Leyton Orient
- at Stockport County28 Nov · League Onewin 25%
- vs Peterborough1 Dec · League Onewin 50%
- at Huddersfield12 Dec · League Onewin 22%
AFC Wimbledon
- vs Barnsley28 Nov · League Onewin 35%
- at Notts County1 Dec · League Onewin 18%
- at Bradford12 Dec · League Onewin 18%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.