Doncaster
vs
Leyton Orient
League One prediction
Our model says: Doncaster 1–0 Leyton Orient
The model makes it 37% Doncaster, 30% draw, 33% Leyton Orient — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Doncaster 1.23, Leyton Orient 1.12.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,094 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Doncaster's rating is built from 58 League One matches and Leyton Orient's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,257 matches.
Key facts
- Doncaster are 18th on 12 points from 12 games; Leyton Orient are 16th on 14 points from 12 games — League One.
- Doncaster have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Luton.
- Leyton Orient have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Burton Albion.
- Last 6 meetings: Doncaster 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 January 2026, ended Doncaster 3–0 Leyton Orient.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Doncaster vs Leyton Orient
Has the model earned this number?
Doncaster at 37%: of 3,980 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.7% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Doncaster vs Leyton Orient
Doncaster
League One
- L1-3away to Luton27 October 2026
- W2-0Sheffield Wednesday24 October 2026
- L0-2Stockport County20 October 2026
- L1-2away to Leicester17 October 2026
- W1-0Burton Albion10 October 2026
Leyton Orient
League One
- L1-2away to Burton Albion24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Reading21 October 2026
- W2-0Blackpool17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Bradford10 October 2026
- L0-2Plymouth3 October 2026
What these results say
- Doncaster scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leyton Orient failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Leyton Orient had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Doncaster | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
| 16 | Leyton Orient | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Doncaster vs Leyton Orient
- 27 January 2026Doncaster 3–0 Leyton OrientLeague One
- 11 October 2025Leyton Orient 4–0 DoncasterLeague One
- 7 January 2023Leyton Orient 1–0 DoncasterLeague Two
- 8 October 2022Doncaster 1–1 Leyton OrientLeague Two
- 18 March 2017Leyton Orient 1–4 DoncasterLeague Two
- 26 November 2016Doncaster 3–1 Leyton OrientLeague Two
Leading scorers: Doncaster and Leyton Orient
Doncaster
No player in League One's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Leyton Orient
GoalsAssists
- J. Kabia42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Doncaster carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.24 for Leyton Orient.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Doncaster and 1.12 for Leyton Orient.
Doncaster rate 0.47 in attack and 1.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Leyton Orient rate 0.51 and 1.72.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Leyton Orient, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Doncaster a 0% chance of the title and Leyton Orient 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Doncaster the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Doncaster against 1.12 for Leyton Orient. Doncaster's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.72 for Leyton Orient.
How the model reaches 37% for Doncaster to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Doncaster to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Doncaster's ratings take away 1 point and Leyton Orient's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level40%−2
- Doncaster's ratings39%−1
- Leyton Orient's ratings37%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Doncaster at home · Leyton Orient away
League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Doncaster 12, Leyton Orient 12.
Doncaster score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Leyton Orient have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Doncaster
- at Bradford21 Nov · League Onewin 21%
- vs Huddersfield26 Nov · League Onewin 28%
- at Reading1 Dec · League Onewin 21%
- vs Bromley12 Dec · League Onewin 57%
Leyton Orient
- vs AFC Wimbledon21 Nov · League Onewin 52%
- at Stockport County28 Nov · League Onewin 22%
- vs Peterborough1 Dec · League Onewin 47%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.