Stevenage
vs
Mansfield Town
League One prediction
Our model says: Stevenage 1–0 Mansfield Town
The model makes it 36% Stevenage, 30% draw, 34% Mansfield Town — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Stevenage 1.20, Mansfield Town 1.17.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,094 settled matches.
A tight game: Stevenage and Mansfield Town are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Stevenage's rating is built from 59 League One matches and Mansfield Town's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,257 matches.
Key facts
- Stevenage are 13th on 15 points from 11 games; Mansfield Town are 10th on 18 points from 11 games — League One.
- Stevenage have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Milton Keynes Dons.
- Mansfield Town are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 4-1 win away to Blackpool.
- Last 6 meetings: Mansfield Town 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 24 January 2026, ended Stevenage 1–1 Mansfield Town.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stevenage vs Mansfield Town
Has the model earned this number?
Stevenage at 36%: of 3,980 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.7% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Stevenage vs Mansfield Town
Stevenage
League One
- L0-1Milton Keynes Dons24 October 2026
- W3-0Plymouth20 October 2026
- L0-2away to Bradford17 October 2026
- W1-0Wigan10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Leyton Orient19 September 2026
Mansfield Town
League One
- W4-1away to Blackpool24 October 2026
- W3-0away to AFC Wimbledon20 October 2026
- D1-1Oxford United15 October 2026
- W2-1Bromley10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Burton Albion19 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Stevenage had two goals or fewer.
- Mansfield Town went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Mansfield Town scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mansfield Town conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Stevenage | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 15 |
| 10 | Mansfield Town | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Stevenage vs Mansfield Town
- 24 January 2026Stevenage 1–1 Mansfield TownLeague One
- 13 September 2025Mansfield Town 1–1 StevenageLeague One
- 8 March 2025Stevenage 1–1 Mansfield TownLeague One
- 30 November 2024Stevenage 0–1 Mansfield TownFA Cup
- 19 October 2024Mansfield Town 0–1 StevenageLeague One
- 22 April 2023Mansfield Town 1–0 StevenageLeague Two
Leading scorers: Stevenage and Mansfield Town
Stevenage
No player in League One's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Mansfield Town
GoalsAssists
- M. Smith62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Stevenage carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.39 for Mansfield Town.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for Stevenage and 1.17 for Mansfield Town.
Stevenage rate 0.48 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mansfield Town rate 0.65 and 1.64.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Mansfield Town, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stevenage a 0.5% chance of the title and Mansfield Town 7.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stevenage the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Stevenage against 1.17 for Mansfield Town. Stevenage's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.64 for Mansfield Town.
How the model reaches 36% for Stevenage to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Stevenage to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Stevenage's ratings take away 3 points and Mansfield Town's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level40%−2
- Stevenage's ratings37%−3
- Mansfield Town's ratings36%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Stevenage at home · Mansfield Town away
League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Stevenage 11, Mansfield Town 11.
Stevenage score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Mansfield Town have let in 4 there.
Mansfield Town score most often in the 16–30 minute window (8 goals); Stevenage have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Stevenage
- at Notts County21 Nov · League Onewin 31%
- vs Sheffield Wednesday24 Nov · League Onewin 36%
- vs Blackpool28 Nov · League Onewin 46%
Mansfield Town
- vs Milton Keynes Dons21 Nov · League Onewin 54%
- at Leicester28 Nov · League Onewin 35%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.