Tigres UANL
vs
Club America
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Tigres UANL 1–2 Club America
The model makes it 35% Tigres UANL, 26% draw, 39% Club America — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Tigres UANL 1.54, Club America 1.63.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Edge to Club America: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Tigres UANL's rating is built from 58 Liga MX matches and Club America's from 54, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 820 matches.
Key facts
- Tigres UANL are 15th on 15 points from 16 games; Club America are 2nd on 30 points from 16 games — Liga MX.
- Tigres UANL have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Cruz Azul.
- Club America are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Pumas UNAM.
- Last 6 meetings: Club America 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 March 2026, ended Club America 1–1 Tigres UANL.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Tigres UANL vs Club America
Has the model earned this number?
Club America at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Tigres UANL vs Club America
Tigres UANL
Liga MX
- L2-3Cruz Azul8 November 2026
- L0-3away to CF Pachuca31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Pumas UNAM25 October 2026
- L0-2Leon21 October 2026
- D1-1away to Guadalajara Chivas17 October 2026
Club America
Liga MX
- D2-2away to Pumas UNAM8 November 2026
- D2-2Toluca1 November 2026
- D1-1Club Tijuana29 October 2026
- L1-2CF Pachuca26 October 2026
- W5-2away to Atlas22 October 2026
What these results say
- Tigres UANL did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Tigres UANL conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Club America scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Club America conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Club America.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 15 |
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Tigres UANL
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 22% today
Club America
Chance to finish top of the Apertura · 29% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Tigres UANL vs Club America
- 28 March 2026Club America 1–1 Tigres UANLFriendlies Clubs
- 1 March 2026Club America 1–4 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 17 August 2025Tigres UANL 1–3 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 30 March 2025Club America 3–0 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 18 July 2024Tigres UANL 1–0 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 30 June 2024Club America 2–1 Tigres UANLCampeón de Campeones
Leading scorers: Tigres UANL and Club America
Tigres UANL
GoalsAssists
- J. Brunetta94
Club America
GoalsAssists
- H. Martín113
- M. Borja60
- B. Rodríguez53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Tigres UANL a 0% chance of the title and Club America 29.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club America the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Tigres UANL against 1.63 for Club America. Tigres UANL's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/1.29 for Club America.
How the model reaches 39% for Club America to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Club America to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Tigres UANL's ratings add 4 points and Club America's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage29%−8
- Both sides at this match's level30%+1
- Tigres UANL's ratings34%+4
- Club America's ratings39%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Tigres UANL at home · Club America away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Tigres UANLClub America
Tigres UANL are 15th after 16 Liga MX matches (between 11th and 18th so far); Club America are 2nd after 16 (between 1st and 8th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Tigres UANL 16, Club America 16.
Tigres UANL score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Club America have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.