Guadalajara Chivas
vs
Cruz Azul
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Guadalajara Chivas 2–1 Cruz Azul
The model makes it 45% Guadalajara Chivas, 26% draw, 29% Cruz Azul — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Guadalajara Chivas 1.80, Cruz Azul 1.34.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Guadalajara Chivas's rating is built from 56 Liga MX matches and Cruz Azul's from 60, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 820 matches.
Key facts
- Guadalajara Chivas are 3rd on 30 points from 16 games; Cruz Azul are top on 32 points from 16 games — Liga MX.
- Guadalajara Chivas are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Leon.
- Cruz Azul are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 3-2 win away to Tigres UANL.
- Last 6 meetings: Cruz Azul 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Guadalajara Chivas 1–2 Cruz Azul.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul
Has the model earned this number?
Guadalajara Chivas at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul
Guadalajara Chivas
Liga MX
- D1-1away to Leon9 November 2026
- W4-2Atlante FC1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Monterrey25 October 2026
- W1-0Necaxa21 October 2026
- D1-1Tigres UANL17 October 2026
Cruz Azul
Liga MX
- W3-2away to Tigres UANL8 November 2026
- W2-1Leon2 November 2026
- W3-1away to Club Queretaro26 October 2026
- W2-1away to CF Pachuca22 October 2026
- W5-0FC Juarez18 October 2026
What these results say
- Guadalajara Chivas went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Guadalajara Chivas scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Guadalajara Chivas had two goals or fewer.
- Cruz Azul won every one of these 5 matches.
- Cruz Azul scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Cruz Azul had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 26 | 15 | +11 | 30 |
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 26 | +11 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Guadalajara Chivas
Chance to finish top of the Apertura · 30% today
Cruz Azul
Chance to finish top of the Apertura · 41% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul
- 17 May 2026Guadalajara Chivas 1–2 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 14 May 2026Cruz Azul 2–2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 22 February 2026Cruz Azul 2–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 1 December 2025Cruz Azul 3–2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 28 November 2025Guadalajara Chivas 0–0 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 31 August 2025Guadalajara Chivas 1–2 Cruz AzulLiga MX
Leading scorers: Guadalajara Chivas and Cruz Azul
Guadalajara Chivas
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
Cruz Azul
GoalsAssists
- A. Montaño65
- N. Ibáñez63
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cruz Azul (first, with Guadalajara Chivas third), while our numbers lean to Guadalajara Chivas. Guadalajara Chivas rate 0.84 in attack and 0.99 in defence, Cruz Azul 1.04 and 1.24 (lower is better in defence), so Guadalajara Chivas have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Guadalajara Chivas a 30% chance of the title and Cruz Azul 40.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Guadalajara Chivas the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Guadalajara Chivas against 1.34 for Cruz Azul. Guadalajara Chivas's attack/defence rating is 0.84/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/1.24 for Cruz Azul.
How the model reaches 45% for Guadalajara Chivas to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Guadalajara Chivas to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, Guadalajara Chivas's ratings take away 1 point and Cruz Azul's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Guadalajara Chivas's ratings44%−1
- Cruz Azul's ratings45%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Guadalajara Chivas at home · Cruz Azul away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Guadalajara ChivasCruz Azul
Guadalajara Chivas are 3rd after 16 Liga MX matches (between 1st and 17th so far); Cruz Azul are 1st after 16 (between 1st and 12th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Guadalajara Chivas 16, Cruz Azul 16.
Guadalajara Chivas score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Cruz Azul have let in 2 there.
Cruz Azul score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Guadalajara Chivas have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.