Başakşehir
vs
Çorum FK
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Başakşehir 2–1 Çorum FK
The model makes it 58% Başakşehir, 21% draw, 21% Çorum FK — fair odds of 1.72, 4.76 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Başakşehir 2.52, Çorum FK 1.34.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Başakşehir: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Başakşehir's rating is built from 45 Süper Lig matches and Çorum FK's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 747 matches.
Key facts
- Başakşehir are 8th on 17 points from 11 games; Çorum FK are 9th on 16 points from 11 games — Süper Lig.
- Başakşehir have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Göztepe.
- Çorum FK have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat at home to Fenerbahçe.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Başakşehir vs Çorum FK
Has the model earned this number?
Başakşehir at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Başakşehir vs Çorum FK
Başakşehir
Süper Lig
- W2-1away to Göztepe7 November 2026
- W5-2Samsunspor1 November 2026
- L0-2away to Beşiktaş26 October 2026
- W2-1Gaziantep FK18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Konyaspor11 October 2026
Çorum FK
Süper Lig
- L0-5Fenerbahçe8 November 2026
- W3-1away to Erzurumspor FK31 October 2026
- L0-2away to Göztepe25 October 2026
- W2-1Rizespor16 October 2026
- W3-0away to Gaziantep FK11 October 2026
What these results say
- Başakşehir conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Çorum FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Çorum FK had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Başakşehir | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Başakşehir
Chance to finish in the top four · 18% today
From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Başakşehir vs Çorum FK
- 4 February 2025Başakşehir 4–1 Çorum FKTürkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: Başakşehir and Çorum FK
Başakşehir
GoalsAssists
- E. Shomurodov81
Çorum FK
GoalsAssists
- C. Ramírez61
- A. Kyziridis44
- C. Ünder42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Başakşehir a 0.4% chance of the title and Çorum FK 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Başakşehir the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Başakşehir against 1.34 for Çorum FK. Başakşehir's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.46 for Çorum FK.
How the model reaches 58% for Başakşehir to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Başakşehir to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Başakşehir's ratings add 6 points and Çorum FK's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level45%+2
- Başakşehir's ratings51%+6
- Çorum FK's ratings58%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Başakşehir at home · Çorum FK away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
BaşakşehirÇorum FK
Başakşehir are 8th after 11 Süper Lig matches (between 1st and 13th so far); Çorum FK are 9th after 11 (between 1st and 16th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Başakşehir 11, Çorum FK 11.
Çorum FK score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Başakşehir have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Başakşehir
- at Eyüpspor29 Nov · Süper Ligwin 65%
- vs Fenerbahçe5 Dec · Süper Ligwin 32%
- at Rizespor13 Dec · Süper Ligwin 46%
- vs Erzurumspor FK19 Dec · Süper Ligwin 62%
- at Alanyaspor17 Jan · Süper Ligwin 49%
Çorum FK
- vs Kocaelispor29 Nov · Süper Ligwin 40%
- at Trabzonspor6 Dec · Süper Ligwin 16%
- vs Amed11 Dec · Süper Ligwin 31%
- at Gençlerbirliği S.K.20 Dec · Süper Ligwin 36%
- vs Konyaspor17 Jan · Süper Ligwin 49%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.