Asteras Tripolis
vs
Aris Thessalonikis
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Asteras Tripolis 0–1 Aris Thessalonikis
The model makes it 32% Asteras Tripolis, 29% draw, 39% Aris Thessalonikis — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Asteras Tripolis 1.17, Aris Thessalonikis 1.35.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Edge to Aris Thessalonikis: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Asteras Tripolis's rating is built from 46 Greek Super League matches and Aris Thessalonikis's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 541 matches.
Key facts
- Asteras Tripolis are 11th on 7 points from 10 games; Aris Thessalonikis are 5th on 19 points from 10 games — Super League 1.
- Asteras Tripolis are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Kalamata.
- Aris Thessalonikis have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Panetolikos.
- Last 6 meetings: Aris Thessalonikis 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 September 2026, ended Asteras Tripolis 1–1 Aris Thessalonikis.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis
Has the model earned this number?
Aris Thessalonikis at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis
Asteras Tripolis
Super League 1
- D1-1Kalamata8 November 2026
- L1-2away to PAOK1 November 2026
- D0-0Levadiakos24 October 2026
- L1-5away to Panathinaikos18 October 2026
- W2-1Atromitos10 October 2026
Aris Thessalonikis
Super League 1
- W3-0Panetolikos7 November 2026
- L0-3away to Levadiakos1 November 2026
- W3-1Atromitos25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Kifisia18 October 2026
- W3-2Volos NFC11 October 2026
What these results say
- Asteras Tripolis failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Asteras Tripolis scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Asteras Tripolis conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Aris Thessalonikis had three goals or more.
- Aris Thessalonikis won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aris Thessalonikis scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 7 |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Asteras Tripolis
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 54% today
Aris Thessalonikis
Chance to finish in the top four · 9% today
From our Super League 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis
- 10 September 2026Asteras Tripolis 1–1 Aris ThessalonikisCup
- 20 December 2025Asteras Tripolis 0–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 9 November 2025Aris Thessalonikis 0–0 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 10 May 2025Aris Thessalonikis 4–2 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 29 March 2025Asteras Tripolis 0–2 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 23 December 2024Asteras Tripolis 2–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Asteras Tripolis and Aris Thessalonikis
Asteras Tripolis
GoalsAssists
- F. Macheda31
Aris Thessalonikis
GoalsAssists
- Fabiano40
- C. Kouamé30
- T. Kadewere30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Asteras Tripolis a 0% chance of the title and Aris Thessalonikis 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aris Thessalonikis the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis against 1.35 for Aris Thessalonikis. Asteras Tripolis's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.3 for Aris Thessalonikis.
How the model reaches 39% for Aris Thessalonikis to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Aris Thessalonikis to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Asteras Tripolis's ratings add 4 points and Aris Thessalonikis's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Both sides at this match's level30%−1
- Asteras Tripolis's ratings34%+4
- Aris Thessalonikis's ratings39%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Asteras Tripolis at home · Aris Thessalonikis away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Asteras TripolisAris Thessalonikis
Asteras Tripolis are 11th after 10 Super League 1 matches (between 10th and 12th so far); Aris Thessalonikis are 5th after 10 (between 2nd and 7th). Points deductions (Volos NFC −3) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Asteras Tripolis 10, Aris Thessalonikis 10.
Aris Thessalonikis score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Asteras Tripolis have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Asteras Tripolis
- at Volos NFC28 Nov · Super League 1win 35%
- vs Kifisia6 Dec · Super League 1win 35%
- at Levadiakos12 Dec · Super League 1win 25%
- vs PAOK19 Dec · Super League 1win 20%
- vs Panathinaikos10 Jan · Super League 1win 15%
Aris Thessalonikis
- vs Olympiakos Piraeus29 Nov · Super League 1win 21%
- at Panathinaikos6 Dec · Super League 1win 13%
- at Iraklis 190812 Dec · Super League 1win 32%
- vs AEK Athens FC20 Dec · Super League 1win 18%
- vs PAOK10 Jan · Super League 1win 27%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.