Stockport County
vs
Reading
League One prediction
Our model says: Stockport County 2–1 Reading
The model makes it 43% Stockport County, 27% draw, 30% Reading — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Stockport County 1.62, Reading 1.28.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,421 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Stockport County's rating is built from 62 League One matches and Reading's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,257 matches.
Key facts
- Stockport County are 2nd on 23 points from 13 games; Reading are 6th on 21 points from 12 games — League One.
- Stockport County have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Oxford United.
- Reading have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Barnsley.
- Last 4 meetings: Stockport County 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 January 2026, ended Reading 1–0 Stockport County.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stockport County vs Reading
Has the model earned this number?
Stockport County at 43%: of 2,421 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.2% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Stockport County vs Reading
Stockport County
League One
- L0-1away to Oxford United27 October 2026
- D1-1away to Notts County24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Doncaster20 October 2026
- W1-0Bromley17 October 2026
- W3-1Barnsley10 October 2026
Reading
League One
- W2-1Barnsley24 October 2026
- W1-0Leyton Orient21 October 2026
- L0-1away to Wigan17 October 2026
- W5-1away to Milton Keynes Dons10 October 2026
- D1-1Bradford3 October 2026
What these results say
- Stockport County scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Stockport County had two goals or fewer.
- Reading scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Reading conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Stockport County | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 13 | +11 | 23 |
| 6 | Reading | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 13 | +12 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Stockport County vs Reading
- 4 January 2026Reading 1–0 Stockport CountyLeague One
- 27 September 2025Stockport County 1–1 ReadingLeague One
- 18 January 2025Reading 1–3 Stockport CountyLeague One
- 29 October 2024Stockport County 4–1 ReadingLeague One
Leading scorers: Stockport County and Reading
Stockport County
GoalsAssists
- K. Wootton91
- J. Diamond43
Reading
GoalsAssists
- J. Marriott80
- Kyreece Lisbie54
- J. Brown41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Stockport County carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.41 for Reading.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Stockport County and 1.28 for Reading.
Stockport County rate 0.65 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Reading rate 0.68 and 1.63.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stockport County a 9.6% chance of the title and Reading 8.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stockport County the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Stockport County against 1.28 for Reading. Stockport County's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.63 for Reading.
How the model reaches 43% for Stockport County to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Stockport County to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Stockport County's ratings change nothing and Reading's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Stockport County's ratings42%±0
- Reading's ratings43%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Stockport County at home · Reading away
League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Stockport County 13, Reading 12.
Stockport County score most often in the 16–30 minute window (7 goals); Reading have let in 0 there.
Reading score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Stockport County have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Stockport County
- at Cambridge United21 Nov · League Onewin 37%
- vs Leyton Orient28 Nov · League Onewin 51%
- at Mansfield Town1 Dec · League Onewin 33%
- at Stevenage12 Dec · League Onewin 36%
Reading
- vs Bromley21 Nov · League Onewin 72%
- at Sheffield Wednesday28 Nov · League Onewin 32%
- vs Doncaster1 Dec · League Onewin 54%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.