St. Louis City
vs
Los Angeles FC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: St. Louis City 2–1 Los Angeles FC
The model makes it 45% St. Louis City, 26% draw, 29% Los Angeles FC — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: St. Louis City 1.73, Los Angeles FC 1.30.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. St. Louis City's rating is built from 68 MLS matches and Los Angeles FC's from 71, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,572 matches.
Key facts
- St. Louis City are 3rd on 54 points from 34 games; Los Angeles FC are 6th on 47 points from 34 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- St. Louis City have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Houston Dynamo.
- Los Angeles FC are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Seattle Sounders.
- Last 6 meetings: Los Angeles FC 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 May 2026, ended St. Louis City 2–1 Los Angeles FC.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: St. Louis City vs Los Angeles FC
Has the model earned this number?
St. Louis City at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into St. Louis City vs Los Angeles FC
St. Louis City
Major League Soccer
- W1-0away to Houston Dynamo8 November 2026
- L0-1San Diego31 October 2026
- L2-3Portland Timbers29 October 2026
- L0-3away to Real Salt Lake25 October 2026
- L2-3away to Minnesota United FC17 October 2026
Los Angeles FC
Major League Soccer
- L1-2away to Seattle Sounders8 November 2026
- L1-3Minnesota United FC2 November 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles Galaxy26 October 2026
- D1-1away to New York City FC17 October 2026
- W3-1Austin15 October 2026
What these results say
- St. Louis City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Los Angeles FC.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | St. Louis City | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 54 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 52 | 40 | +12 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: St. Louis City vs Los Angeles FC
- 14 May 2026St. Louis City 2–1 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 15 March 2026Los Angeles FC 2–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 28 September 2025St. Louis City 0–3 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 27 April 2025Los Angeles FC 2–2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 3 October 2024Los Angeles FC 1–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 16 May 2024St. Louis City 0–2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: St. Louis City and Los Angeles FC
St. Louis City
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Navarro196
Los Angeles FC
GoalsAssists
- D. Bouanga185
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St. Louis City the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for St. Louis City against 1.30 for Los Angeles FC. St. Louis City's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.22 for Los Angeles FC.
How the model reaches 45% for St. Louis City to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for St. Louis City to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, St. Louis City's ratings add 2 points and Los Angeles FC's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- St. Louis City's ratings45%+2
- Los Angeles FC's ratings45%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
St. Louis City at home · Los Angeles FC away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: St. Louis City 34, Los Angeles FC 34.
St. Louis City score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); Los Angeles FC have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
St. Louis City
- at Los Angeles FC29 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 32%
Los Angeles FC
- vs St. Louis City29 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 42%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.