RB Leipzig
vs
Lens
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: RB Leipzig 3–1 Lens
The model makes it 67% RB Leipzig, 17% draw, 16% Lens — fair odds of 1.49, 5.88 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: RB Leipzig 3.22, Lens 1.37.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 84%, under 2.5: 16%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to RB Leipzig: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. RB Leipzig's rating is built from 43 Bundesliga matches and Lens's from 44 Ligue 1 (France) matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 4 matches for RB Leipzig, 4 for Lens. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 722 matches.
Key facts
- RB Leipzig are 30th on 3 points from 4 games; Lens are 33rd on 3 points from 4 games — UEFA Champions League.
- RB Leipzig have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Manchester City.
- Lens are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-9 defeat at home to Como.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: RB Leipzig vs Lens
Has the model earned this number?
RB Leipzig at 67%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into RB Leipzig vs Lens
RB Leipzig
UEFA Champions League
- L2-3Manchester City4 November 2026
- L1-4away to Real Madrid21 October 2026
- W1-0PSV Eindhoven13 October 2026
- L1-4away to Como10 September 2026
Lens
UEFA Champions League
- L1-9Como4 November 2026
- L0-3away to Club Brugge KV21 October 2026
- L0-2Sporting CP13 October 2026
- W3-2away to Slavia Praha10 September 2026
What these results say
- RB Leipzig scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- RB Leipzig failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- RB Leipzig conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Lens conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Lens failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Lens had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 33 | Lens | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: RB Leipzig vs Lens
- 9 August 2025Lens 2–1 RB LeipzigFriendlies Clubs
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives RB Leipzig the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.22 expected goals for RB Leipzig against 1.37 for Lens. RB Leipzig's attack/defence rating is 1.47/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.15/0.99 for Lens.
How the model reaches 67% for RB Leipzig to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for RB Leipzig to win. Then home advantage adds 10 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, RB Leipzig's ratings add 9 points and Lens's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 67%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage47%+10
- Both sides at this match's level49%+2
- RB Leipzig's ratings58%+9
- Lens's ratings67%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
RB Leipzig at home · Lens away
League matches only, this season — RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga, Lens in the Ligue 1; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: RB Leipzig 9 in the Bundesliga, Lens 10 in the Ligue 1.
RB Leipzig score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Lens have let in 4 there.
Lens score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); RB Leipzig have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
RB Leipzig
- at SC Freiburg29 Nov · Bundesligawin 38%
- vs FSV Mainz 055 Dec · Bundesligawin 66%
- at Manchester United8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 38%
- at 1. FC Köln12 Dec · Bundesligawin 60%
Lens
- at Angers28 Nov · Ligue 1win 55%
- vs Le Havre5 Dec · Ligue 1win 65%
- vs Bodo/Glimt9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 45%
- at Nice12 Dec · Ligue 1win 40%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.