Como
vs
AEK Athens FC
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Como 2–0 AEK Athens FC
The model makes it 72% Como, 17% draw, 11% AEK Athens FC — fair odds of 1.39, 5.88 and 9.09.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Como 2.85, AEK Athens FC 0.86.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Como are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Como's rating is built from 49 Serie A matches and AEK Athens FC's from 41 Greek Super League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 4 matches for Como, 22 for AEK Athens FC. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 722 matches.
Key facts
- Como are 4th on 9 points from 4 games; AEK Athens FC are 29th on 3 points from 4 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Como have won 3 of their last 4 games, most recently a 9-1 win away to Lens.
- AEK Athens FC are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Real Madrid.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Como vs AEK Athens FC
Has the model earned this number?
Como at 72%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Como vs AEK Athens FC
Como
UEFA Champions League
- W9-1away to Lens4 November 2026
- W4-1Manchester United21 October 2026
- L2-3away to Feyenoord14 October 2026
- W4-1RB Leipzig10 September 2026
AEK Athens FC
UEFA Champions League
- L2-3Real Madrid4 November 2026
- L1-5away to Manchester City20 October 2026
- L1-3away to Shakhtar Donetsk14 October 2026
- W1-0Lask Linz8 September 2026
What these results say
- Como scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Como conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Como had three goals or more.
- AEK Athens FC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- AEK Athens FC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- AEK Athens FC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Como | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 9 |
| 29 | AEK Athens FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Como and AEK Athens FC
Como
GoalsAssists
- T. Douvikas61
- N. Paz35
AEK Athens FC
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Como the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.85 expected goals for Como against 0.86 for AEK Athens FC. Como's attack/defence rating is 1.17/0.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.24/0.74 for AEK Athens FC.
How the model reaches 72% for Como to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Como to win. Then home advantage adds 10 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Como's ratings add 14 points and AEK Athens FC's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 72%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage47%+10
- Both sides at this match's level46%−1
- Como's ratings60%+14
- AEK Athens FC's ratings72%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Como's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and AEK Athens FC's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Como at home · AEK Athens FC away
League matches only, this season — Como in the Serie A, AEK Athens FC in the Super League 1; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Como 11 in the Serie A, AEK Athens FC 9 in the Super League 1.
Como score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); AEK Athens FC have let in 1 there.
AEK Athens FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Como have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Como
- vs Juventus29 Nov · Serie Awin 39%
- at Monza6 Dec · Serie Awin 57%
- at Real Betis9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 33%
- vs Bologna13 Dec · Serie Awin 48%
AEK Athens FC
- vs PAOK29 Nov · Super League 1win 53%
- at Olympiakos Piraeus5 Dec · Super League 1win 33%
- vs Galatasaray8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 54%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.