Arsenal
vs
Borussia Dortmund
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Arsenal 2–0 Borussia Dortmund
The model makes it 65% Arsenal, 22% draw, 13% Borussia Dortmund — fair odds of 1.54, 4.55 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Arsenal 2.09, Borussia Dortmund 0.66.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Arsenal are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Arsenal's rating is built from 48 Premier League matches and Borussia Dortmund's from 43 Bundesliga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 18 matches for Arsenal, 14 for Borussia Dortmund. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 722 matches.
Key facts
- Arsenal are 3rd on 10 points from 4 games; Borussia Dortmund are 12th on 9 points from 4 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 4 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Slavia Praha.
- Borussia Dortmund have won 3 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Real Betis.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 9 August 2026, ended Arsenal 2–3 Borussia Dortmund.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund
Has the model earned this number?
Arsenal at 65%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund
Arsenal
UEFA Champions League
- W2-1away to Slavia Praha4 November 2026
- D2-2away to Bayern München21 October 2026
- W3-0Lille13 October 2026
- W1-0away to Napoli9 September 2026
Borussia Dortmund
UEFA Champions League
- W2-1Real Betis4 November 2026
- W2-1away to Sabah FA20 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bodo/Glimt14 October 2026
- W3-2Villarreal8 September 2026
What these results say
- Arsenal went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Arsenal scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Arsenal won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Borussia Dortmund conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Borussia Dortmund won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Borussia Dortmund scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Arsenal | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 10 |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund
Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 3 each.
The record
Borussia Dortmund won the last one 3–2 on 9 Aug 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 9 Aug 2026
Emirates CupArsenal 2–3 Borussia Dortmund - 26 Nov 2014
UEFA Champions LeagueArsenal 2–0 Borussia Dortmund - 16 Sep 2014
UEFA Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund 2–0 Arsenal - 6 Nov 2013
UEFA Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund 0–1 Arsenal - 22 Oct 2013
UEFA Champions LeagueArsenal 1–2 Borussia Dortmund - 23 Nov 2011
UEFA Champions LeagueArsenal 2–1 Borussia Dortmund
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Arsenal's attack rates 14% above Borussia Dortmund's, and Arsenal concede 10% fewer than Borussia Dortmund. That gives Arsenal the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.38 | 0.52 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.21 | 0.58 |
Leading scorers: Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund
Arsenal
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Borussia Dortmund
GoalsAssists
- S. Guirassy40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arsenal the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Arsenal against 0.66 for Borussia Dortmund. Arsenal's attack/defence rating is 1.38/0.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.21/0.58 for Borussia Dortmund.
How the model reaches 65% for Arsenal to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Arsenal to win. Then home advantage adds 10 points, the level of the two sides takes away 4 points, Arsenal's ratings add 8 points and Borussia Dortmund's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 65%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage47%+10
- Both sides at this match's level43%−4
- Arsenal's ratings51%+8
- Borussia Dortmund's ratings65%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Arsenal at home · Borussia Dortmund away
League matches only, this season — Arsenal in the Premier League, Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Arsenal 10 in the Premier League, Borussia Dortmund 9 in the Bundesliga.
Borussia Dortmund score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Arsenal have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Arsenal
- vs Manchester City29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 47%
- at Brentford2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 50%
- at Tottenham6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 56%
- vs Real Madrid9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 43%
Borussia Dortmund
- vs Bayer Leverkusen29 Nov · Bundesligawin 53%
- at FC Schalke 046 Dec · Bundesligawin 55%
- vs Inter9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 41%
- vs FC Augsburg12 Dec · Bundesligawin 66%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.