Aris Thessalonikis
vs
Panetolikos
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Aris Thessalonikis 1–0 Panetolikos
The model makes it 48% Aris Thessalonikis, 28% draw, 24% Panetolikos — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Aris Thessalonikis 1.56, Panetolikos 0.95.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to Aris Thessalonikis: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Aris Thessalonikis's rating is built from 39 Greek Super League matches and Panetolikos's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 520 matches.
Key facts
- Aris Thessalonikis are 5th on 13 points from 7 games; Panetolikos are 9th on 9 points from 7 games — Super League 1.
- Aris Thessalonikis are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Kifisia.
- Panetolikos are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Olympiakos Piraeus.
- Last 6 meetings: Aris Thessalonikis 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 31 January 2026, ended Panetolikos 0–1 Aris Thessalonikis.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aris Thessalonikis at 48% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos
Aris Thessalonikis
Super League 1
- W2-1away to Kifisia18 October 2026
- W3-2Volos NFC11 October 2026
- D0-0Iraklis 190819 September 2026
- L0-2away to PAOK13 September 2026
- L0-5away to AEK Athens FC5 September 2026
Panetolikos
Super League 1
- L0-2Olympiakos Piraeus18 October 2026
- L0-2away to Kifisia11 October 2026
- L1-3PAOK20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Panathinaikos13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Levadiakos6 September 2026
What these results say
- Aris Thessalonikis conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Panetolikos failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Panetolikos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 13 |
| 9 | Panetolikos | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos
- 31 January 2026Panetolikos 0–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 6 January 2026Aris Thessalonikis 2–0 PanetolikosCup
- 17 September 2025Panetolikos 0–1 Aris ThessalonikisCup
- 30 August 2025Aris Thessalonikis 0–2 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 23 February 2025Aris Thessalonikis 2–1 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 9 November 2024Panetolikos 2–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos
Aris Thessalonikis
GoalsAssists
- Fabiano30
- C. Kouamé20
Panetolikos
GoalsAssists
- G. Granath20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aris Thessalonikis carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.45 for Panetolikos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.95 for Panetolikos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aris Thessalonikis rate 0.76 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Panetolikos rate 0.63 and 1.41.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Aris Thessalonikis a 0.1% chance of the title and Panetolikos 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aris Thessalonikis the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis against 0.95 for Panetolikos. Aris Thessalonikis's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.41 for Panetolikos.
How the model reaches 48% for Aris Thessalonikis to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Aris Thessalonikis to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Aris Thessalonikis's ratings take away 13 points and Panetolikos's ratings add 20 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Aris Thessalonikis's ratings28%−13
- Panetolikos's ratings48%+20
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aris Thessalonikis at home · Panetolikos away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Aris ThessalonikisPanetolikos
Aris Thessalonikis are 5th after 7 Super League 1 matches (between 2nd and 7th so far); Panetolikos are 9th after 7 (between 1st and 9th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Volos NFC −3) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Aris Thessalonikis 7, Panetolikos 7.
Panetolikos score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Aris Thessalonikis have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Aris Thessalonikis
- at Asteras Tripolis23 Nov · Super League 1win 39%
- vs Olympiakos Piraeus29 Nov · Super League 1win 23%
- at Panathinaikos6 Dec · Super League 1win 14%
Panetolikos
- vs Volos NFC22 Nov · Super League 1win 44%
- at Iraklis 190828 Nov · Super League 1win 23%
- vs Atromitos7 Dec · Super League 1win 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.