Kalamata
vs
Iraklis 1908
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Kalamata 1–0 Iraklis 1908
The model makes it 42% Kalamata, 28% draw, 30% Iraklis 1908 — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Kalamata 1.51, Iraklis 1908 1.18.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 1,986 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Kalamata's rating is built from 7 Greek Super League matches and Iraklis 1908's from 7, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 520 matches.
Key facts
- Kalamata are 6th on 10 points from 7 games; Iraklis 1908 are 8th on 9 points from 7 games — Super League 1.
- Kalamata have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-3 win at home to OFI.
- Iraklis 1908 have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to PAOK.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kalamata vs Iraklis 1908
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kalamata at 42% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,987 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kalamata vs Iraklis 1908
Kalamata
- W4-3OFI18 October 2026
- W3-1away to PAOK12 October 2026
- L0-1Panathinaikos20 September 2026
- W3-1Volos NFC13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atromitos6 September 2026
Iraklis 1908
- L1-2away to PAOK18 October 2026
- W2-0Levadiakos11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Aris Thessalonikis19 September 2026
- D1-1Atromitos12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Asteras Tripolis7 September 2026
What these results say
- Kalamata conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kalamata scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Kalamata.
- Iraklis 1908 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Iraklis 1908 had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kalamata | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 10 |
| 8 | Iraklis 1908 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Kalamata vs Iraklis 1908
- 28 March 2026Kalamata 1–0 Iraklis 1908Super League 2
Leading scorers: Kalamata and Iraklis 1908
Kalamata
GoalsAssists
- K. Vargas30
- E. Hamza20
Iraklis 1908
No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kalamata carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.63 for Iraklis 1908. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Kalamata and 1.18 for Iraklis 1908. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kalamata rate 0.95 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Iraklis 1908 rate 0.68 and 1.09.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kalamata the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Kalamata against 1.18 for Iraklis 1908. Kalamata's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.09 for Iraklis 1908.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kalamata at home · Iraklis 1908 away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
KalamataIraklis 1908
Kalamata are 5th after 7 Super League 1 matches (between 5th and 12th so far); Iraklis 1908 are 8th after 7 (between 7th and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Volos NFC −3) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Kalamata 7, Iraklis 1908 7.
Kalamata score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Iraklis 1908 have let in 1 there.
Iraklis 1908 score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Kalamata have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Kalamata
- at Asteras Tripolis8 Nov · Super League 1win 43%
- vs AEK Athens FC21 Nov · Super League 1win 18%
- at Kifisia28 Nov · Super League 1win 39%
- vs Levadiakos6 Dec · Super League 1win 54%
Iraklis 1908
- vs Panathinaikos8 Nov · Super League 1win 22%
- at Olympiakos Piraeus22 Nov · Super League 1win 17%
- vs Panetolikos28 Nov · Super League 1win 47%
- at OFI6 Dec · Super League 1win 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.