PAOK
vs
Asteras Tripolis
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: PAOK 2–0 Asteras Tripolis
The model makes it 68% PAOK, 20% draw, 12% Asteras Tripolis — fair odds of 1.47, 5.00 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: PAOK 2.47, Asteras Tripolis 0.80.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: PAOK are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- PAOK are 4th on 12 points from 6 games; Asteras Tripolis are 11th on 5 points from 6 games — Super League 1.
- PAOK have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Kalamata.
- Asteras Tripolis are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Atromitos.
- Last 6 meetings: PAOK 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 March 2026, ended PAOK 2–0 Asteras Tripolis.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PAOK at 68% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis
PAOK
- L1-3Kalamata12 October 2026
- W3-1away to Panetolikos20 September 2026
- W2-0Aris Thessalonikis13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Panathinaikos6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Atromitos30 August 2026
Asteras Tripolis
- W2-1Atromitos10 October 2026
- D2-2away to OFI20 September 2026
- D1-1AEK Athens FC13 September 2026
- L0-2Iraklis 19087 September 2026
- L0-1Olympiakos Piraeus30 August 2026
What these results say
- PAOK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- PAOK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for PAOK had three goals or more.
- Asteras Tripolis conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Asteras Tripolis failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | PAOK | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 12 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis
- 1 March 2026PAOK 2–0 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 28 September 2025Asteras Tripolis 3–3 PAOKSuper League 1
- 2 March 2025PAOK 2–0 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 24 November 2024Asteras Tripolis 1–2 PAOKSuper League 1
- 17 December 2023Asteras Tripolis 1–4 PAOKSuper League 1
- 20 August 2023PAOK 3–0 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
Leading scorers: PAOK and Asteras Tripolis
PAOK
GoalsAssists
- D. Pelkas30
- C. Ndiaye30
Asteras Tripolis
GoalsAssists
- F. Macheda21
- K. Ketu20
- J. Bartolo20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
PAOK carry a model rating of 6.94 against 6.47 for Asteras Tripolis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.47 goals for PAOK and 0.80 for Asteras Tripolis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
PAOK rate 1.20 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Asteras Tripolis rate 0.66 and 1.42.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives PAOK a 12.5% chance of the title and Asteras Tripolis 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PAOK the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.47 expected goals for PAOK against 0.80 for Asteras Tripolis. PAOK's attack/defence rating is 1.2/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.42 for Asteras Tripolis.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
PAOK at home · Asteras Tripolis away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
PAOKAsteras Tripolis
PAOK are 4th after 6 Super League 1 matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Asteras Tripolis are 10th after 6 (between 10th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Volos NFC −3) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: PAOK 6, Asteras Tripolis 6.
PAOK score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Asteras Tripolis have let in 1 there.
Asteras Tripolis score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); PAOK have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
PAOK
- at Olympiakos Piraeus8 Nov · Super League 1win 29%
- vs Kifisia22 Nov · Super League 1win 64%
- at AEK Athens FC29 Nov · Super League 1win 22%
Asteras Tripolis
- vs Kalamata8 Nov · Super League 1win 33%
- vs Aris Thessalonikis23 Nov · Super League 1win 35%
- at Volos NFC28 Nov · Super League 1win 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.