Auckland FC
vs
Wellington Phoenix
A-League prediction
Our model says: Auckland FC 2–1 Wellington Phoenix
The model makes it 47% Auckland FC, 24% draw, 29% Wellington Phoenix — fair odds of 2.13, 4.17 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Auckland FC 2.13, Wellington Phoenix 1.58.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Auckland FC are top on 3 points from 1 game; Wellington Phoenix are 3rd on 3 points from 1 game — A-League.
- Last 6 meetings: Auckland FC 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended Wellington Phoenix 0–5 Auckland FC.
More A-League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Auckland FC at 47% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix
Auckland FC
A-League
- L2-5away to Western Sydney Wanderers24 October 2026
Wellington Phoenix
A-League
- W2-1Melbourne Victory18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auckland FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 3 | Wellington Phoenix | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix
- 21 February 2026Wellington Phoenix 0–5 Auckland FCA-League
- 6 December 2025Auckland FC 3–1 Wellington PhoenixA-League
- 8 November 2025Wellington Phoenix 1–2 Auckland FCA-League
- 22 February 2025Auckland FC 6–1 Wellington PhoenixA-League
- 7 December 2024Auckland FC 2–1 Wellington PhoenixA-League
- 2 November 2024Wellington Phoenix 0–2 Auckland FCA-League
Leading scorers: Auckland FC and Wellington Phoenix
Auckland FC
GoalsAssists
- L. Bayliss20
- L. Brook10
Wellington Phoenix
GoalsAssists
- C. Piper10
- R. Bidois10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Auckland FC carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.24 for Wellington Phoenix. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.13 goals for Auckland FC and 1.58 for Wellington Phoenix. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Auckland FC rate 0.67 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wellington Phoenix rate 0.57 and 1.93.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Auckland FC the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Auckland FC against 1.58 for Wellington Phoenix. Auckland FC's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.93 for Wellington Phoenix.
How the model reaches 47% for Auckland FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Auckland FC to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Auckland FC's ratings take away 24 points and Wellington Phoenix's ratings add 32 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage39%+2
- Auckland FC's ratings15%−24
- Wellington Phoenix's ratings47%+32
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Auckland FC
- vs Melbourne Victory21 Nov · A-Leaguewin 40%
- at Central Coast Mariners28 Nov · A-Leaguewin 43%
- vs Sydney FC12 Dec · A-Leaguewin 38%
- at Wellington Phoenix19 Dec · A-Leaguewin 43%
Wellington Phoenix
- vs Macarthur FC22 Nov · A-Leaguewin 36%
- vs Adelaide United6 Dec · A-Leaguewin 33%
- at Western Sydney Wanderers13 Dec · A-Leaguewin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.