Vanspor FK
vs
Sivasspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Vanspor FK 0–1 Sivasspor
The model makes it 35% Vanspor FK, 29% draw, 36% Sivasspor — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Vanspor FK 1.24, Sivasspor 1.25.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 958 settled matches.
A tight game: Vanspor FK and Sivasspor are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Vanspor FK's rating is built from 50 TFF 1. Lig matches and Sivasspor's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Vanspor FK are 17th on 10 points from 12 games; Sivasspor are 12th on 13 points from 11 games — 1. Lig.
- Vanspor FK have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Boluspor.
- Sivasspor are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Sarıyer.
- Last 2 meetings: both drawn; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Sivasspor 3–3 Vanspor FK.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vanspor FK vs Sivasspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sivasspor at 36% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Vanspor FK vs Sivasspor
Vanspor FK
1. Lig
- W3-0away to Boluspor23 October 2026
- L0-2Ümraniyespor18 October 2026
- W2-1away to Pendikspor13 October 2026
- L0-2Bandırmaspor9 October 2026
- L0-3away to Antalyaspor20 September 2026
Sivasspor
1. Lig
- D1-1Sarıyer17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Bandırmaspor13 October 2026
- W4-1Pendikspor9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Keçiörengücü19 September 2026
- D1-1Muğlaspor13 September 2026
What these results say
- Vanspor FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sivasspor went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Sivasspor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sivasspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Vanspor FK | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 10 |
| 12 | Sivasspor | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vanspor FK vs Sivasspor
- 14 February 2026Sivasspor 3–3 Vanspor FK1. Lig
- 20 September 2025Vanspor FK 0–0 Sivasspor1. Lig
Leading scorers: Vanspor FK and Sivasspor
Vanspor FK
GoalsAssists
- J. Bardhi40
Sivasspor
GoalsAssists
- R. Manaj92
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vanspor FK carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.35 for Sivasspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for Vanspor FK and 1.25 for Sivasspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vanspor FK rate 0.51 in attack and 1.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sivasspor rate 0.55 and 1.50.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vanspor FK a 0% chance of the title and Sivasspor 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sivasspor the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Vanspor FK against 1.25 for Sivasspor. Vanspor FK's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.5 for Sivasspor.
How the model reaches 36% for Sivasspor to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sivasspor to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Vanspor FK's ratings add 35 points and Sivasspor's ratings take away 28 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Vanspor FK's ratings64%+35
- Sivasspor's ratings36%−28
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vanspor FK at home · Sivasspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Vanspor FK 12, Sivasspor 11.
Vanspor FK score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Sivasspor have let in 3 there.
Sivasspor score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Vanspor FK have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Vanspor FK
- at Bodrum FK23 Nov · 1. Ligwin 17%
- vs Bursaspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 22%
- at Fatih Karagümrük6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 22%
- vs Esenler Erokspor13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 31%
Sivasspor
- at Bursaspor22 Nov · 1. Ligwin 17%
- vs Bodrum FK29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 35%
- at Iğdır FK6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.