Asteras Tripolis
vs
Levadiakos
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Asteras Tripolis 1–0 Levadiakos
The model makes it 41% Asteras Tripolis, 28% draw, 31% Levadiakos — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Asteras Tripolis 1.47, Levadiakos 1.18.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Asteras Tripolis are 11th on 5 points from 6 games; Levadiakos are 13th on 1 point from 6 games — Super League 1.
- Asteras Tripolis are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Atromitos.
- Levadiakos have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Iraklis 1908.
- Last 6 meetings: Levadiakos 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 August 2026, ended Levadiakos 2–0 Asteras Tripolis.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Asteras Tripolis at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos
Asteras Tripolis
- W2-1Atromitos10 October 2026
- D2-2away to OFI20 September 2026
- D1-1AEK Athens FC13 September 2026
- L0-2Iraklis 19087 September 2026
- L0-1Olympiakos Piraeus30 August 2026
Levadiakos
- L0-2away to Iraklis 190811 October 2026
- L0-1Olympiakos Piraeus20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Kifisia13 September 2026
- L0-2Panetolikos6 September 2026
- L0-2Panathinaikos31 August 2026
What these results say
- Asteras Tripolis conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Asteras Tripolis failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Levadiakos did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Levadiakos failed to score in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Levadiakos had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 |
| 13 | Levadiakos | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Asteras Tripolis
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 38% today
Levadiakos
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 68% today
From our Super League 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos
- 18 August 2026Levadiakos 2–0 Asteras TripolisCup
- 1 February 2026Levadiakos 3–1 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 7 December 2025Asteras Tripolis 1–1 LevadiakosSuper League 1
- 29 October 2025Levadiakos 1–0 Asteras TripolisCup
- 19 January 2025Levadiakos 1–2 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 28 September 2024Asteras Tripolis 1–1 LevadiakosSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos
Asteras Tripolis
GoalsAssists
- F. Macheda21
- K. Ketu20
- J. Bartolo20
Levadiakos
No league goals yet this season.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Asteras Tripolis carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.46 for Levadiakos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.18 for Levadiakos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Asteras Tripolis rate 0.66 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Levadiakos rate 0.70 and 1.53.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Asteras Tripolis the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis against 1.18 for Levadiakos. Asteras Tripolis's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.53 for Levadiakos.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Asteras Tripolis at home · Levadiakos away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Asteras TripolisLevadiakos
Asteras Tripolis are 10th after 6 Super League 1 matches (between 10th and 13th so far); Levadiakos are 13th after 6 (between 13th and 14th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Volos NFC −2) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Asteras Tripolis 6, Levadiakos 6.
Asteras Tripolis score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Levadiakos have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Asteras Tripolis
- at PAOK1 Nov · Super League 1win 12%
- vs Kalamata8 Nov · Super League 1win 33%
- vs Aris Thessalonikis23 Nov · Super League 1win 35%
- at Volos NFC28 Nov · Super League 1win 36%
Levadiakos
- vs Aris Thessalonikis1 Nov · Super League 1win 35%
- at AEK Athens FC8 Nov · Super League 1win 7%
- vs Atromitos22 Nov · Super League 1win 35%
- at OFI29 Nov · Super League 1win 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.