AEK Athens FC
vs
Panetolikos
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: AEK Athens FC 2–0 Panetolikos
The model makes it 75% AEK Athens FC, 17% draw, 8% Panetolikos — fair odds of 1.33, 5.88 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (15%).
Expected goals: AEK Athens FC 2.56, Panetolikos 0.55.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: AEK Athens FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- AEK Athens FC are 2nd on 14 points from 6 games; Panetolikos are 8th on 9 points from 6 games — Super League 1.
- AEK Athens FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to OFI.
- Panetolikos are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Kifisia.
- Last 6 meetings: AEK Athens FC 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 December 2025, ended Panetolikos 0–5 AEK Athens FC.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AEK Athens FC at 75% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos
AEK Athens FC
- W3-0OFI10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Volos NFC20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Asteras Tripolis13 September 2026
- W5-0Aris Thessalonikis5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Kifisia30 August 2026
Panetolikos
- L0-2away to Kifisia11 October 2026
- L1-3PAOK20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Panathinaikos13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Levadiakos6 September 2026
- W2-0Kalamata29 August 2026
What these results say
- AEK Athens FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- AEK Athens FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEK Athens FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 3 | +13 | 14 |
| 8 | Panetolikos | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
AEK Athens FC
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 49% today
Panetolikos
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 20% today
From our Super League 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos
- 14 December 2025Panetolikos 0–5 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 2 November 2025AEK Athens FC 1–0 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 24 September 2025AEK Athens FC 2–1 PanetolikosCup
- 25 January 2025AEK Athens FC 1–0 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 5 October 2024Panetolikos 1–0 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 18 December 2023Panetolikos 2–2 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
Leading scorers: AEK Athens FC and Panetolikos
AEK Athens FC
GoalsAssists
- B. Varga40
- L. Jović40
- Zini20
Panetolikos
GoalsAssists
- G. Granath20
- K. Opoku20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
AEK Athens FC carry a model rating of 7.15 against 6.47 for Panetolikos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.56 goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.55 for Panetolikos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AEK Athens FC rate 1.26 in attack and 0.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Panetolikos rate 0.66 and 1.40.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AEK Athens FC a 48.9% chance of the title and Panetolikos 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEK Athens FC the highest probability at 75%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.56 expected goals for AEK Athens FC against 0.55 for Panetolikos. AEK Athens FC's attack/defence rating is 1.26/0.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.4 for Panetolikos.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AEK Athens FC at home · Panetolikos away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AEK Athens FCPanetolikos
AEK Athens FC are 2nd after 6 Super League 1 matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Panetolikos are 6th after 6 (between 1st and 6th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Volos NFC −2) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: AEK Athens FC 6, Panetolikos 6.
AEK Athens FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Panetolikos have let in 0 there.
Panetolikos score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); AEK Athens FC have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
AEK Athens FC
- at Panathinaikos1 Nov · Super League 1win 38%
- vs Real Madrid4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 40%
Panetolikos
- vs OFI1 Nov · Super League 1win 36%
- at Aris Thessalonikis7 Nov · Super League 1win 27%
- vs Volos NFC22 Nov · Super League 1win 46%
- at Iraklis 190828 Nov · Super League 1win 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.