Arbroath
vs
Ayr Utd
Championship prediction
Our model says: Arbroath 1–0 Ayr Utd
The model makes it 40% Arbroath, 28% draw, 32% Ayr Utd — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Arbroath 1.43, Ayr Utd 1.22.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,126 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Arbroath's rating is built from 47 Scottish Championship matches and Ayr Utd's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Arbroath are 8th on 11 points from 11 games; Ayr Utd are 7th on 12 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Arbroath are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Inverness CT.
- Ayr Utd have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Partick.
- Last 6 meetings: Ayr Utd 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Ayr Utd 2–0 Arbroath.
More Scottish Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Arbroath vs Ayr Utd
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arbroath at 40% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Arbroath vs Ayr Utd
Arbroath
Championship
- L0-2away to Inverness CT17 October 2026
- L1-2Morton10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Partick3 October 2026
- W2-1Queen's Park25 September 2026
- L0-1away to Stenhousemuir19 September 2026
Ayr Utd
Championship
- L0-1Partick16 October 2026
- D1-1Dunfermline10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Livingston3 October 2026
- L0-1Stenhousemuir25 September 2026
- W2-0away to Queen's Park18 September 2026
What these results say
- Arbroath conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Arbroath failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ayr Utd conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Ayr Utd had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Arbroath | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 11 |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Arbroath vs Ayr Utd
- 1 August 2026Ayr Utd 2–0 ArbroathChampionship
- 11 April 2026Ayr Utd 1–0 ArbroathChampionship
- 3 March 2026Arbroath 1–1 Ayr UtdChampionship
- 15 November 2025Ayr Utd 1–1 ArbroathChampionship
- 1 August 2025Arbroath 1–1 Ayr UtdChampionship
- 19 July 2025Ayr Utd 4–0 ArbroathLeague Cup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Arbroath carry a model rating of 5.86 against 5.93 for Ayr Utd. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Arbroath and 1.22 for Ayr Utd. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arbroath rate 0.36 in attack and 2.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ayr Utd rate 0.39 and 2.44.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ayr Utd, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Arbroath a 0% chance of the title and Ayr Utd 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arbroath the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Arbroath against 1.22 for Ayr Utd. Arbroath's attack/defence rating is 0.36/2.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/2.44 for Ayr Utd.
How the model reaches 40% for Arbroath to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Arbroath to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Arbroath's ratings take away 38 points and Ayr Utd's ratings add 34 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Arbroath's ratings6%−38
- Ayr Utd's ratings40%+34
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Arbroath at home · Ayr Utd away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Arbroath 11, Ayr Utd 11.
Arbroath score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Ayr Utd have let in 1 there.
Ayr Utd score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Arbroath have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Arbroath
- at Dunfermline14 Nov · Championshipwin 18%
- vs Stenhousemuir21 Nov · Championshipwin 24%
- at Queen's Park5 Dec · Championshipwin 32%
Ayr Utd
- vs Raith Rovers14 Nov · Championshipwin 31%
- at Inverness CT20 Nov · Championshipwin 20%
- at Stenhousemuir5 Dec · Championshipwin 16%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.