Morton
vs
Stenhousemuir
Championship prediction
Our model says: Morton 0–1 Stenhousemuir
The model makes it 23% Morton, 26% draw, 51% Stenhousemuir — fair odds of 4.35, 3.85 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Morton 1.00, Stenhousemuir 1.77.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,491 settled matches.
One-sided: Stenhousemuir are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Morton's rating is built from 47 Scottish Championship matches and Stenhousemuir's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Morton are 9th on 7 points from 11 games; Stenhousemuir are top on 23 points from 10 games — Championship.
- Morton have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Queen's Park.
- Stenhousemuir have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Raith Rovers.
- Last 5 meetings: Morton 3 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended Stenhousemuir 2–0 Morton.
More Scottish Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Morton vs Stenhousemuir
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stenhousemuir at 51% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Morton vs Stenhousemuir
Morton
Championship
- W2-0Queen's Park17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Arbroath10 October 2026
- L1-2Raith Rovers3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Inverness CT25 September 2026
- L0-1Dunfermline19 September 2026
Stenhousemuir
Championship
- D1-1Raith Rovers17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Inverness CT10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Ayr Utd25 September 2026
- W1-0Arbroath19 September 2026
- W1-0Partick15 September 2026
What these results say
- Morton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Stenhousemuir had two goals or fewer.
- Stenhousemuir scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Morton | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 7 |
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Morton vs Stenhousemuir
- 8 August 2026Stenhousemuir 2–0 MortonChampionship
- 17 January 2026Stenhousemuir 4–0 MortonFA Cup
- 15 July 2025Morton 3–0 StenhousemuirLeague Cup
- 28 June 2022Stenhousemuir 0–1 MortonFriendlies Clubs
- 21 July 2018Morton 2–0 StenhousemuirLeague Cup
The two sides
Morton carry a model rating of 5.82 against 6.26 for Stenhousemuir. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.00 goals for Morton and 1.77 for Stenhousemuir. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Morton rate 0.39 in attack and 3.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stenhousemuir rate 0.48 and 1.58.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Morton a 0% chance of the title and Stenhousemuir 43.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stenhousemuir the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Morton against 1.77 for Stenhousemuir. Morton's attack/defence rating is 0.39/3.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.58 for Stenhousemuir.
How the model reaches 51% for Stenhousemuir to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Stenhousemuir to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Morton's ratings add 56 points and Stenhousemuir's ratings take away 34 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Morton's ratings85%+56
- Stenhousemuir's ratings51%−34
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Morton at home · Stenhousemuir away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Morton 11, Stenhousemuir 10.
Morton score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Stenhousemuir have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Morton
- at Livingston14 Nov · Championshipwin 16%
- at Dunfermline21 Nov · Championshipwin 17%
- vs Inverness CT5 Dec · Championshipwin 29%
Stenhousemuir
- vs Queen's Park14 Nov · Championshipwin 66%
- at Arbroath21 Nov · Championshipwin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.