Inverness CT
vs
Livingston
Championship prediction
Our model says: Inverness CT 2–1 Livingston
The model makes it 45% Inverness CT, 26% draw, 29% Livingston — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Inverness CT 1.78, Livingston 1.31.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,126 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Inverness CT's rating is built from 11 Scottish Championship matches and Livingston's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Inverness CT are 4th on 16 points from 11 games; Livingston are 6th on 14 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Inverness CT have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Arbroath.
- Livingston are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Dunfermline.
- Last 6 meetings: Inverness CT 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 September 2026, ended Livingston 2–2 Inverness CT.
More Scottish Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Inverness CT vs Livingston
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inverness CT at 45% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Inverness CT vs Livingston
Inverness CT
Championship
- W2-0Arbroath17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Queen's Park13 October 2026
- W2-0Stenhousemuir10 October 2026
- W2-0Morton25 September 2026
- D2-2away to Livingston19 September 2026
Livingston
Championship
- D0-0away to Dunfermline17 October 2026
- L1-2Partick10 October 2026
- L1-2Ayr Utd3 October 2026
- W2-0away to Raith Rovers25 September 2026
- D2-2Inverness CT19 September 2026
What these results say
- Inverness CT scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Livingston failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Livingston scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Inverness CT | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 | Livingston | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Inverness CT vs Livingston
- 19 September 2026Livingston 2–2 Inverness CTChampionship
- 12 October 2024Livingston 2–2 Inverness CTChallenge Cup
- 11 February 2023Livingston 0–3 Inverness CTFA Cup
- 12 July 2022Livingston 1–2 Inverness CTLeague Cup
- 8 February 2020Inverness CT 1–0 LivingstonFA Cup
- 24 April 2018Livingston 0–1 Inverness CTChampionship
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Inverness CT carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.12 for Livingston. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Inverness CT and 1.31 for Livingston. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Inverness CT rate 0.51 in attack and 2.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Livingston rate 0.50 and 2.15.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Inverness CT a 4.4% chance of the title and Livingston 1.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inverness CT the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Inverness CT against 1.31 for Livingston. Inverness CT's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.15 for Livingston.
How the model reaches 45% for Inverness CT to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Inverness CT to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Inverness CT's ratings take away 32 points and Livingston's ratings add 33 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Inverness CT's ratings12%−32
- Livingston's ratings45%+33
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Inverness CT at home · Livingston away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Inverness CT 11, Livingston 11.
Livingston score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Inverness CT have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Inverness CT
- at Partick14 Nov · Championshipwin 22%
- vs Ayr Utd20 Nov · Championshipwin 56%
- at Morton5 Dec · Championshipwin 46%
Livingston
- vs Morton14 Nov · Championshipwin 64%
- at Queen's Park21 Nov · Championshipwin 46%
- vs Raith Rovers4 Dec · Championshipwin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.