Raith Rovers
vs
Inverness CT
Championship prediction
Our model says: Raith Rovers 2–1 Inverness CT
The model makes it 50% Raith Rovers, 25% draw, 25% Inverness CT — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Raith Rovers 1.86, Inverness CT 1.16.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Raith Rovers are 2nd on 20 points from 10 games; Inverness CT are 6th on 13 points from 10 games — Championship.
- Raith Rovers have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Queen's Park.
- Inverness CT have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Queen's Park.
- Last 6 meetings: Raith Rovers 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended Inverness CT 0–2 Raith Rovers.
More Scottish Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Raith Rovers at 50% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT
Raith Rovers
- W2-0Queen's Park10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Morton3 October 2026
- L0-2Livingston25 September 2026
- D0-0away to Partick19 September 2026
- W4-0Arbroath12 September 2026
Inverness CT
- L1-2away to Queen's Park13 October 2026
- W2-0Stenhousemuir10 October 2026
- W2-0Morton25 September 2026
- D2-2away to Livingston19 September 2026
- W3-1away to Ayr Utd12 September 2026
What these results say
- Inverness CT scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Raith Rovers | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 20 |
| 6 | Inverness CT | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Raith Rovers
Chance to finish in the top four · 60% today
Inverness CT
Chance to finish in the top four · 20% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT
- 5 September 2026Inverness CT 0–2 Raith RoversChampionship
- 5 April 2026Raith Rovers 4–1 Inverness CTChallenge Cup
- 26 July 2025Raith Rovers 5–1 Inverness CTLeague Cup
- 6 July 2024Raith Rovers 1–0 Inverness CTFriendlies Clubs
- 19 April 2024Inverness CT 0–1 Raith RoversChampionship
- 27 January 2024Raith Rovers 2–3 Inverness CTChampionship
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Raith Rovers carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.09 for Inverness CT. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Raith Rovers and 1.16 for Inverness CT. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Raith Rovers rate 0.51 in attack and 1.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Inverness CT rate 0.49 and 2.24.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Raith Rovers a 11.3% chance of the title and Inverness CT 1.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Raith Rovers the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Raith Rovers against 1.16 for Inverness CT. Raith Rovers's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.24 for Inverness CT.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Raith Rovers at home · Inverness CT away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Raith Rovers 10, Inverness CT 10.
Raith Rovers score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Inverness CT have let in 1 there.
Inverness CT score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Raith Rovers have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Raith Rovers
- at Arbroath31 Oct · Championshipwin 24%
- vs Dunfermline6 Nov · Championshipwin 38%
- at Ayr Utd14 Nov · Championshipwin 40%
- vs Partick21 Nov · Championshipwin 39%
Inverness CT
- at Dunfermline31 Oct · Championshipwin 20%
- vs Livingston7 Nov · Championshipwin 39%
- at Partick14 Nov · Championshipwin 21%
- vs Ayr Utd20 Nov · Championshipwin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.