Livingston
vs
Arbroath
Championship prediction
Our model says: Livingston 1–0 Arbroath
The model makes it 40% Livingston, 28% draw, 32% Arbroath — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Livingston 1.48, Arbroath 1.25.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Livingston are 4th on 13 points from 10 games; Arbroath are 8th on 11 points from 10 games — Championship.
- Livingston have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Partick.
- Arbroath have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Morton.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 29 August 2026, ended Arbroath 1–0 Livingston.
More Scottish Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Livingston vs Arbroath
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Livingston at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Livingston vs Arbroath
Livingston
- L1-2Partick10 October 2026
- L1-2Ayr Utd3 October 2026
- W2-0away to Raith Rovers25 September 2026
- D2-2Inverness CT19 September 2026
- W4-1away to Morton11 September 2026
Arbroath
- L1-2Morton10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Partick3 October 2026
- W2-1Queen's Park25 September 2026
- L0-1away to Stenhousemuir19 September 2026
- L0-4away to Raith Rovers12 September 2026
What these results say
- Livingston scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Livingston conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Livingston had three goals or more.
- Arbroath conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Arbroath failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Arbroath had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Livingston | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 13 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Livingston
Chance to finish in the top four · 43% today
Arbroath
Chance to finish in the top four · 43% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Livingston vs Arbroath
- 29 August 2026Arbroath 1–0 LivingstonChampionship
- 5 July 2021Livingston 4–0 ArbroathFriendlies Clubs
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Livingston carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.27 for Arbroath. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Livingston and 1.25 for Arbroath. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Livingston rate 0.54 in attack and 1.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arbroath rate 0.53 and 1.69.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Livingston a 5.5% chance of the title and Arbroath 4.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Livingston the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Livingston against 1.25 for Arbroath. Livingston's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.69 for Arbroath.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Livingston at home · Arbroath away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Livingston 10, Arbroath 10.
Livingston score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Arbroath have let in 1 there.
Arbroath score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Livingston have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Livingston
- at Stenhousemuir30 Oct · Championshipwin 26%
- at Inverness CT7 Nov · Championshipwin 35%
- vs Morton14 Nov · Championshipwin 70%
- at Queen's Park21 Nov · Championshipwin 48%
Arbroath
- vs Raith Rovers31 Oct · Championshipwin 49%
- vs Ayr Utd7 Nov · Championshipwin 61%
- at Dunfermline14 Nov · Championshipwin 28%
- vs Stenhousemuir21 Nov · Championshipwin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.