Sport Huancayo
vs
FBC Melgar
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Sport Huancayo 1–2 FBC Melgar
The model makes it 36% Sport Huancayo, 27% draw, 37% FBC Melgar — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sport Huancayo 1.42, FBC Melgar 1.45.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Sport Huancayo and FBC Melgar are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sport Huancayo are 10th on 41 points from 29 games; FBC Melgar are 4th on 47 points from 28 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Sport Huancayo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Cusco.
- FBC Melgar are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Universitario.
- Last 6 meetings: FBC Melgar 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended FBC Melgar 4–1 Sport Huancayo.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FBC Melgar at 37% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar
Sport Huancayo
- W2-1Cusco16 October 2026
- W1-0away to Deportivo Garcilaso10 October 2026
- W3-2UTC Cajamarca20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Comerciantes Unidos12 September 2026
- W2-1Sport Boys5 September 2026
FBC Melgar
- D2-2away to Universitario11 October 2026
- D1-1Sport Boys20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cusco12 September 2026
- W3-0ADT6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Atletico Grau1 September 2026
What these results say
- Sport Huancayo won every one of these 5 matches.
- Sport Huancayo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FBC Melgar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sport Huancayo | 29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 41 |
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 47 | 31 | +16 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar
- 16 May 2026FBC Melgar 4–1 Sport HuancayoPrimera División
- 26 October 2025FBC Melgar 2–0 Sport HuancayoPrimera División
- 21 June 2025Sport Huancayo 2–2 FBC MelgarPrimera División
- 27 October 2024Sport Huancayo 2–4 FBC MelgarPrimera División
- 18 May 2024FBC Melgar 4–1 Sport HuancayoPrimera División
- 27 August 2023FBC Melgar 1–3 Sport HuancayoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Sport Huancayo and FBC Melgar
Sport Huancayo
GoalsAssists
- Javier Andrés Sanguinetti81
FBC Melgar
GoalsAssists
- B. Cuesta136
- J. Vidales121
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sport Huancayo carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.51 for FBC Melgar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Sport Huancayo and 1.45 for FBC Melgar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sport Huancayo rate 0.64 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FBC Melgar rate 0.69 and 1.36.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sport Huancayo a 0% chance of the title and FBC Melgar 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FBC Melgar the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Sport Huancayo against 1.45 for FBC Melgar. Sport Huancayo's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.36 for FBC Melgar.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sport Huancayo at home · FBC Melgar away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Sport Huancayo 29, FBC Melgar 28.
Sport Huancayo score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); FBC Melgar have let in 1 there.
FBC Melgar score most often in the 31–45 minute window (13 goals); Sport Huancayo have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Sport Huancayo
- at Cienciano7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 28%
- vs Universitario14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 39%
FBC Melgar
- vs Juan Pablo II College7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 57%
- at Alianza Atletico14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.