Cusco
vs
ADT
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Cusco 1–0 ADT
The model makes it 57% Cusco, 25% draw, 18% ADT — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Cusco 1.85, ADT 0.83.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,726 settled matches.
Edge to Cusco: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Cusco's rating is built from 69 Primera División (Peru) matches and ADT's from 66, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Cusco are 5th on 51 points from 31 games; ADT are 15th on 30 points from 31 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Cusco have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas.
- ADT have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to UCV Moquegua.
- Last 6 meetings: Cusco 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 30 May 2026, ended ADT 1–2 Cusco.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cusco vs ADT
Has the model earned this number?
Cusco at 57%: of 1,310 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.0% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cusco vs ADT
Cusco
Primera División
- W1-0away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas29 October 2026
- W3-1Sporting Cristal24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sport Huancayo16 October 2026
- L1-2Alianza Lima11 October 2026
- W2-1away to FC Cajamarca19 September 2026
ADT
Primera División
- W2-0UCV Moquegua28 October 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico Grau23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas16 October 2026
- D0-0FC Cajamarca10 October 2026
- W2-1Cienciano23 September 2026
What these results say
- Cusco scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cusco conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cusco had three goals or more.
- ADT scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cusco | 31 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 46 | 43 | +3 | 51 |
| 15 | ADT | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cusco vs ADT
- 30 May 2026ADT 1–2 CuscoPrimera División
- 23 September 2025Cusco 0–2 ADTPrimera División
- 28 April 2025ADT 2–1 CuscoPrimera División
- 17 September 2024ADT 1–2 CuscoPrimera División
- 15 April 2024Cusco 3–2 ADTPrimera División
- 2 September 2023Cusco 1–0 ADTPrimera División
Leading scorers: Cusco and ADT
Cusco
GoalsAssists
- F. Callejo182
ADT
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cusco the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Cusco against 0.83 for ADT. Cusco's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.72 for ADT.
How the model reaches 57% for Cusco to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cusco to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Cusco's ratings add 7 points and ADT's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Cusco's ratings50%+7
- ADT's ratings57%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Cusco at home · ADT away
League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Cusco 31, ADT 31.
Cusco score most often in the 0–15 minute window (9 goals); ADT have let in 5 there.
ADT score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); Cusco have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.