Cusco
vs
Sport Boys
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Cusco 1–0 Sport Boys
The model makes it 45% Cusco, 28% draw, 27% Sport Boys — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cusco 1.50, Sport Boys 1.03.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Cusco are 6th on 45 points from 29 games; Sport Boys are 11th on 38 points from 28 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Cusco have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Sport Huancayo.
- Sport Boys have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Alianza Atletico.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Sport Boys 1–0 Cusco.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cusco vs Sport Boys
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cusco at 45% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cusco vs Sport Boys
Cusco
- L1-2away to Sport Huancayo16 October 2026
- L1-2Alianza Lima11 October 2026
- W2-1away to FC Cajamarca19 September 2026
- L0-1FBC Melgar12 September 2026
- W2-0UCV Moquegua5 September 2026
Sport Boys
- L1-3Alianza Atletico11 October 2026
- D1-1away to FBC Melgar20 September 2026
- W1-0Deportivo Garcilaso13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sport Huancayo5 September 2026
- W1-0Sporting Cristal30 August 2026
What these results say
- Cusco scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cusco conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sport Boys scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cusco | 29 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 45 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 30 | 29 | +1 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cusco vs Sport Boys
- 17 May 2026Sport Boys 1–0 CuscoPrimera División
- 7 November 2025Cusco 3–0 Sport BoysPrimera División
- 6 July 2025Sport Boys 1–2 CuscoPrimera División
- 5 August 2024Cusco 3–1 Sport BoysPrimera División
- 24 February 2024Sport Boys 3–0 CuscoPrimera División
- 3 October 2023Sport Boys 2–1 CuscoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Cusco and Sport Boys
Cusco
GoalsAssists
- F. Callejo162
Sport Boys
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 30 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cusco carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.38 for Sport Boys. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Cusco and 1.03 for Sport Boys. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cusco rate 0.66 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sport Boys rate 0.53 and 1.40.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cusco the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Cusco against 1.03 for Sport Boys. Cusco's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.4 for Sport Boys.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cusco at home · Sport Boys away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Cusco 29, Sport Boys 28.
Cusco score most often in the 0–15 minute window (8 goals); Sport Boys have let in 5 there.
Sport Boys score most often in the 46–60 minute window (12 goals); Cusco have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Cusco
- at Atletico Grau7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 32%
- vs ADT14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 57%
Sport Boys
- vs UTC Cajamarca7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 57%
- at Comerciantes Unidos14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.