Atletico Grau
vs
Universitario
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Atletico Grau 0–1 Universitario
The model makes it 35% Atletico Grau, 29% draw, 36% Universitario — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Atletico Grau 1.23, Universitario 1.24.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Atletico Grau and Universitario are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Atletico Grau are 13th on 33 points from 28 games; Universitario are 2nd on 50 points from 28 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Atletico Grau have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Club Deportivo Los Chankas.
- Universitario have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to FBC Melgar.
- Last 6 meetings: Universitario 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 June 2026, ended Universitario 1–1 Atletico Grau.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atletico Grau vs Universitario
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universitario at 36% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Atletico Grau vs Universitario
Atletico Grau
- D0-0Club Deportivo Los Chankas8 October 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting Cristal19 September 2026
- W3-1Alianza Atletico13 September 2026
- L2-4away to Deportivo Garcilaso6 September 2026
- W1-0FBC Melgar1 September 2026
Universitario
- D2-2FBC Melgar11 October 2026
- L0-4away to Deportivo Garcilaso19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Alianza Lima13 September 2026
- D2-2Comerciantes Unidos6 September 2026
- W4-2away to UTC Cajamarca29 August 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Grau scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Universitario conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Universitario had three goals or more.
- Universitario scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Atletico Grau | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 33 |
| 2 | Universitario | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 45 | 33 | +12 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Grau vs Universitario
- 26 June 2026Universitario 1–1 Atletico GrauCopa De La Liga
- 16 May 2026Universitario 0–1 Atletico GrauPrimera División
- 1 August 2025Universitario 3–1 Atletico GrauPrimera División
- 26 June 2025Atletico Grau 0–2 UniversitarioPrimera División
- 21 July 2024Atletico Grau 1–1 UniversitarioPrimera División
- 4 February 2024Universitario 1–0 Atletico GrauPrimera División
Leading scorers: Atletico Grau and Universitario
Atletico Grau
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
Universitario
GoalsAssists
- A. Valera162
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atletico Grau carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.47 for Universitario. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Atletico Grau and 1.24 for Universitario. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Grau rate 0.49 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Universitario rate 0.72 and 1.54.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atletico Grau a 0% chance of the title and Universitario 1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universitario the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Atletico Grau against 1.24 for Universitario. Atletico Grau's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.54 for Universitario.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atletico Grau at home · Universitario away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Atletico Grau 28, Universitario 28.
Atletico Grau score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Universitario have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Atletico Grau
- vs Cusco7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 38%
- at UCV Moquegua14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 37%
Universitario
- vs UCV Moquegua7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 64%
- at Sport Huancayo14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.