Clausura - 17 · 14 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys Primera División prediction

Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra, Cutervo

Our model says: Comerciantes Unidos 1–0 Sport Boys

The model makes it 42% Comerciantes Unidos, 29% draw, 29% Sport Boys — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Comerciantes Unidos 1.40, Sport Boys 1.09.

Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,421 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Comerciantes Unidos's rating is built from 65 Primera División (Peru) matches and Sport Boys's from 65, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Comerciantes Unidos are 13th on 35 points from 31 games; Sport Boys are 11th on 41 points from 30 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
  • Comerciantes Unidos have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to FBC Melgar.
  • Sport Boys have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win at home to FC Cajamarca.
  • Last 5 meetings: Sport Boys 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 30 May 2026, ended Sport Boys 1–0 Comerciantes Unidos.

More Primera División (Peru) predictions

All Primera División (Peru) predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys

51%
Both teams to score
45%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Comerciantes Unidos win Draw Sport Boys win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 0–09%
  4. 2–19%
  5. 0–18%
  6. 2–08%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Comerciantes Unidos first; the other scorelines share the remaining 35%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Comerciantes Unidos at 42%: of 2,421 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.2% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys

Comerciantes Unidos

Primera División

  • D1-1away to FBC Melgar30 October 2026
  • W3-1Cienciano25 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Sporting Cristal18 October 2026
  • D1-1Juan Pablo II College10 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Alianza Atletico18 September 2026

Sport Boys

Primera División

  • W4-2FC Cajamarca25 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Juan Pablo II College17 October 2026
  • L1-3Alianza Atletico11 October 2026
  • D1-1away to FBC Melgar20 September 2026
  • W1-0Deportivo Garcilaso13 September 2026

What these results say

  • Comerciantes Unidos scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Comerciantes Unidos conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Comerciantes Unidos.
  • Sport Boys scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sport Boys conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Comerciantes Unidos31811124245-335
11Sport Boys30118113433+141

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys

  • 30 May 2026Sport Boys 1–0 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
  • 13 September 2025Sport Boys 0–1 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
  • 13 April 2025Comerciantes Unidos 0–4 Sport BoysPrimera División
  • 24 October 2024Comerciantes Unidos 0–0 Sport BoysPrimera División
  • 11 May 2024Sport Boys 1–1 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División

Leading scorers: Comerciantes Unidos and Sport Boys

Comerciantes Unidos

GoalsAssists

  • M. Sen103

Sport Boys

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 34 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Comerciantes Unidos carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.35 for Sport Boys.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Comerciantes Unidos and 1.09 for Sport Boys.

Comerciantes Unidos rate 0.59 in attack and 1.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sport Boys rate 0.53 and 1.46.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sport Boys, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Comerciantes Unidos the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Comerciantes Unidos against 1.09 for Sport Boys. Comerciantes Unidos's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.46 for Sport Boys.

How the model reaches 42% for Comerciantes Unidos to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Comerciantes Unidos to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Comerciantes Unidos's ratings change nothing and Sport Boys's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 42%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. Comerciantes Unidos's ratings43%±0
  5. Sport Boys's ratings42%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Comerciantes UnidosSport Boys
31Matches30
8W 11D 12LRecord11W 8D 11L
42 1.4 per gameGoals scored34 1.1 per game
45 1.5 per gameGoals conceded33 1.1 per game
5 of 31Clean sheets12 of 30
7 of 31Failed to score8 of 30
6 of 6Penalties scored5 of 7
74 2.4 per gameYellow cards84 2.8 per game
8Red cards9
4-2-3-1 16×Usual shape4-2-3-1 19×

Comerciantes Unidos at home · Sport Boys away

15Played14
6W 6D 3LRecord2W 3D 9L
20–14Goals for – against10–21
5 of 15Clean sheets3 of 14

League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Primera División matches this season: Comerciantes Unidos 31, Sport Boys 30.

Comerciantes Unidos scored 43811511
Sport Boys conceded 637555
Sport Boys scored 1461327
Comerciantes Unidos conceded 61175610

Sport Boys score most often in the 46–60 minute window (13 goals); Comerciantes Unidos have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.