UTC Cajamarca
vs
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Primera División prediction
Our model says: UTC Cajamarca 1–0 Club Deportivo Los Chankas
The model makes it 43% UTC Cajamarca, 27% draw, 30% Club Deportivo Los Chankas — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: UTC Cajamarca 1.56, Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1.20.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,421 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. UTC Cajamarca's rating is built from 67 Primera División (Peru) matches and Club Deportivo Los Chankas's from 66, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- UTC Cajamarca are bottom on 18 points from 31 games; Club Deportivo Los Chankas are 9th on 46 points from 31 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- UTC Cajamarca have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to FC Cajamarca.
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Cusco.
- Last 5 meetings: UTC Cajamarca 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 31 May 2026, ended Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2–2 UTC Cajamarca.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Has the model earned this number?
UTC Cajamarca at 43%: of 2,421 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.2% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
UTC Cajamarca
Primera División
- W3-1away to FC Cajamarca28 October 2026
- L1-2FBC Melgar23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Cienciano18 October 2026
- L0-1Sporting Cristal11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Sport Huancayo20 September 2026
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Primera División
- L0-1Cusco29 October 2026
- L1-4away to Deportivo Garcilaso25 October 2026
- W2-1ADT16 October 2026
- D0-0away to Atletico Grau8 October 2026
- D1-1away to Cienciano30 September 2026
What these results say
- UTC Cajamarca conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- UTC Cajamarca failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 18 |
| 9 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
- 31 May 2026Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2–2 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
- 29 September 2025UTC Cajamarca 2–0 Club Deportivo Los ChankasPrimera División
- 11 May 2025Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2–1 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
- 19 September 2024Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1–1 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
- 15 April 2024UTC Cajamarca 2–0 Club Deportivo Los ChankasPrimera División
Leading scorers: UTC Cajamarca and Club Deportivo Los Chankas
UTC Cajamarca
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
GoalsAssists
- F. Torres95
- J. Quintero81
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
UTC Cajamarca carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.17 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for UTC Cajamarca and 1.20 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas.
UTC Cajamarca rate 0.49 in attack and 1.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Deportivo Los Chankas rate 0.50 and 1.96.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Club Deportivo Los Chankas, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives UTC Cajamarca the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for UTC Cajamarca against 1.20 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas. UTC Cajamarca's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.96 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas.
How the model reaches 43% for UTC Cajamarca to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for UTC Cajamarca to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, UTC Cajamarca's ratings change nothing and Club Deportivo Los Chankas's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- UTC Cajamarca's ratings44%±0
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas's ratings43%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
UTC Cajamarca at home · Club Deportivo Los Chankas away
League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: UTC Cajamarca 31, Club Deportivo Los Chankas 31.
UTC Cajamarca score most often in the 76–90 minute window (16 goals); Club Deportivo Los Chankas have let in 11 there.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); UTC Cajamarca have let in 15 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.